To The Moon

Here is a professional-tone assessment of the upcoming earnings for AAPL (Apple) and AMZN (Amazon), including what to watch for, the potential for them to “turn the tide” of their recent under-performance, and my view on their trajectories.

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What to watch

Apple

For Apple the key items investors will be focused on:

1. iPhone sales and upgrade cycle – The strength of the current iPhone model and the upgrade momentum, particularly in major markets such as the U.S. and China, is critical. Analysts expect iPhone revenue for the September quarter of about US$50.1 billion, up ~8.5 % year-on-year. 

2. Services growth – The App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, iCloud, etc., remain important as higher-margin growth engines and stabilisers in slower product cycles.

3. Overseas / China performance – Apple’s performance in China and other international markets is under heightened scrutiny due to tougher competition, supply chain complexity, and shifting demand. 

4. Supply-chain & product roadmap – Any commentary on the health of supply chain (tariffs, manufacturing shifts to India/Vietnam) and upcoming product cycles (e.g., foldable iPhone, AI features) will be closely parsed. 

5. Guidance – Perhaps the most important: what Apple says about next quarter (holiday season) and into fiscal year 2026. With the stock having rallied recently, the guidance has to live up to high expectations.

Amazon

For Amazon the key items to watch:

1. E-commerce sales growth / margin pressure – Growth in the core retail business, cost management of logistics/fulfilment, and margin trends remain central given the heavy investments. 

2. AWS (Amazon Web Services) growth & margin – As Amazon’s cloud business remains the major driver of profit, any sign of acceleration (or deceleration) in AWS is a big signal. 

3. Advertising & other growth businesses – Amazon’s advertising business, and other high-growth adjacencies (satellite / Project Kuiper, etc) act as margin uplifters and growth catalysts. 

4. CapEx, investment cycle and guidance – Amazon has very heavy capital expenditure as it scales cloud, data-centres, logistics, AI infrastructure. Guidance around cash-flow, return on those investments, and how cost pressure is being managed will matter. 

5. Holiday season outlook – Given the importance of Q4 for retail, signals about demand patterns, inventory levels, consumer strength/weakness, and macro headwinds (tariffs, currency, inflation) will be very relevant.

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Can they “turn the tide”?

Yes — both companies have the potential to regain momentum, but the risks are as meaningful as the opportunities.

Apple

Positive factors

Recent improvements in iPhone demand (upgrade cycle) and services growth provide a tailwind. For example, the recent reports say Apple reached about US$4 trillion market cap on the back of strong iPhone cycle. 

The ecosystem remains strong — switching costs, brand loyalty, and services recurring revenue help.

If Apple delivers strong guidance, especially on services and overseas growth, it could instil renewed investor confidence.

Risks / headwinds

The bar is high: given the recent rally and the market’s expectation of a “turn” in the cycle, any weak guidance or softness in China/upgrade-cycle could lead to disappointment.

Apple is perceived to be a bit behind peers in the “AI race” or next-generation growth narrative (though that may matter less if the iPhone cycle is strong). 

Supply-chain, tariffs, manufacturing shifts (and the cost thereof) remain uncertainties.

Growth in services may face margin/compliance/regulation headwinds (e.g., antitrust in Europe) which could dampen the outlook.

My verdict: I lean toward Apple being capable of turning the tide if the upgrade cycle is genuinely strong and they show momentum in services + China + supply-chain stability. But I would view it as a moderate probability rather than a sure bet.

Amazon

Positive factors

Amazon’s “laggard” status may give it more upside if it shows acceleration. Some analysts view it as a “coiled spring” ahead of earnings. 

If AWS growth accelerates and margins improve, that could unlock a re-rating.

Advertising, logistics optimisation, AI investments provide structural growth levers.

With recent under-performance, the bar might be more “forgiving” if Amazon beats meaningfully.

Risks / headwinds

Retail margins remain under pressure due to cost of logistics, delivery, fulfilment, shipping and inflation.

Heavy CapEx means that cash flow recovery and ROIC (return on invested capital) are critically watched — any softness will hurt sentiment.

AWS growth has decelerated vs peak growth rates, raising questions of sustainability.

Macroeconomic/consumer demand risk: if consumer weakness emerges, e-commerce could be hit.

Guidance may become conservative if the company braces for slower growth post-holiday season.

My verdict: I believe Amazon can catch up, but it is a higher-risk/higher-reward scenario compared to Apple. If Amazon shows clear inflection (AWS + advertising + margin improvement), the market may reward it. But the pathway is less certain.

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Will Apple’s iPhone cycle push it higher (e.g., over US$300)?

Apple’s stock is currently in the US$269 range.

If the iPhone upgrade cycle is strong (particularly in China/US), services continue to grow, and the guidance is positive, upward price potential exists.

Whether it hits US$300 depends on multiple factors: earnings growth, margin expansion, and a re-rating of its P/E multiple. Apple is already trading at a premium (approx 33× forward earnings) per recent commentary. 

If Apple can demonstrate that it is not only selling phones but also leading in growth (services + new product categories such as foldable/AI), then US$300 is within reach over medium term (12-18 months).

However, if there is softness in China or the upgrade cycle is weaker than expected, the path to US$300 could be delayed or derailed.

Conclusion: Yes, it is feasible that Apple could run toward US$300, but it is not guaranteed — the upgrade cycle must deliver and guidance must reinforce the momentum.

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Should we expect Amazon to “catch up”?

Given Amazon’s relative under-performance among the big tech names this year (only ~4 % gain year-to-date vs others much higher) and the bullish language around “coiled spring”, the potential upside may be meaningful. 

Key triggers: a strong AWS result + margin improvement + positive guidance on holiday/retail + signs that advertising/delivery cost base is improving.

If Amazon can check those boxes, a re-rating is plausible, which may allow it to “catch up” to the stronger performers in the tech cohort.

But “catch up” does not necessarily mean immediate or dramatic; it may be more of a sustained recovery rather than a quick leap.

For investors, the risk/return trade-off is favourable if one is willing to accept some uncertainty.

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My overall view

Both Apple and Amazon are in meaningful positions: Apple more “steady” with clearer visibility (if iPhone cycle is strong), Amazon more “opportunity” with greater risk but potentially higher upside if inflection happens.

For you (given your preference for stability and gradual progress), Apple may represent the lower-risk path, while Amazon may be the higher-risk/higher-reward complement.

For the broader market: if both report well, this could bolster investor confidence in the tech sector and perhaps support a broader market rally (especially given their large weights). If either disappoints, the ripple effect may be larger because of elevated expectations.

From a portfolio standpoint: if you currently hold tech exposure and want to adjust tilt, you might consider a “tilt toward Apple with a monitored position in Amazon” — meaning you track Amazon’s earnings closely and if triggers hit you increase exposure, if not you maintain patience.