To The Moon

Palantir just did that Palantir thing—rip to records, then a sudden air-pocket lower. Now everyone’s staring at the $160s like it’s an unclaimed parking spot. Does the chart really want to “fill the gap”?

After sprinting to an all-time high just above $207 on Nov. 3, Palantir (PLTR) slipped hard in the sessions that followed. The first big crack came the very next day, when shares fell ~8% despite blowout results and raised guidance. Since then, the stock has chopped lower in bursts, with this week’s ~7% slide knocking it back toward the high-$160s. Even after the skid, PLTR remains more than double its level from January. 

Why the whiplash? Ironically, the drop landed after a strong quarter. On Nov. 3 Palantir guided Q4 revenue to $1.327–$1.331B, well above consensus, and highlighted booming AI demand across government and commercial customers. Traders loved the numbers—until they didn’t, fretting that the bar might now be too high. 

Three forces are tugging at the tape:

1) Valuation hangover. After a triple-digit run this year, even excellent results can trigger “great, now prove it” selling. That’s exactly what we saw the day after earnings: a beat and raise, followed by a sharp slide as investors recalibrated multiples and expectations. Reuters summed it up bluntly—Palantir has more than doubled in 2025, stoking fresh “AI bubble” chatter. 

2) The gap everyone’s watching. Technicians note an open post-earnings gap in the $160s—and markets love testing unfinished business. That zone also lines up with a late-summer congestion band when PLTR traded $151–$161 in early September, adding chart memory to the mix. If momentum keeps fading, many expect the stock to probe that area. 

3) Event risk is behind us—positioning isn’t. With the earnings fireworks over, options and fast-money positioning can dominate short-term moves. A few “sell the news” days can snowball when a name has become a crowd favorite, and PLTR has definitely been that. Investopedia flagged it as a market leader on the down days as well as the up ones. 

How (to think about it)

If you’re trying to game the next chapter, a simple framework helps:

• The scoreboard: Management just pointed to Q4 revenue well above Street, implying AI-driven growth remains hot. If the next updates keep that pace intact, pullbacks tend to get framed as “resets,” not trend breaks. 

• The levels: $170 is the battle line right now; the $160–$162 pocket is the chart magnet if sellers press the issue. A decisive bounce there would complete the gap-fill story technicians love to tell. (No crystal balls—just probabilities and price history.) 

• The narrative risk: After a record high at $207.52, expectations are lofty. Any hint of slower AI deal flow, elongated sales cycles, or compute constraints could extend the cooldown. Conversely, confirming another quarter of 50%+ growth would re-ignite momentum quickly. 

Bottom line: Palantir’s latest flip isn’t a mystery—it’s a classic case of gravity meeting great expectations. The company just raised guidance into a hot AI market; the stock, meanwhile, is negotiating where the new “fair” multiple lives after a monster year. Whether the story makes a pit stop in the $160s or turns higher sooner, the tell will be simple: delivery versus dream.