To The Moon

Market Outlook: Bullish Tilt with Caution

The recent 2 percent decline reflects a sentiment reset rather than a structural break. Volatility has risen, but liquidity support remains intact. The Fed’s emergency move last Friday shows policymakers are still highly sensitive to disorderly tightening. If QT indeed ends in December, the liquidity overhang for risk assets improves meaningfully.

Will there be a “mindless” rally this week

A short rebound is possible because positioning is light and sentiment is fragile. Investors tend to chase when markets flip from fear to relief. However, the durability of such a rally depends on whether macro data confirms softening inflation without a deep growth slowdown.

Is this year’s decline over

The correction appears more like a pullback within an ongoing bull phase rather than a macro reversal. Corporate balance sheets remain healthy, credit spreads are stable, and institutional flows remain positive. These conditions usually prevent deep drawdowns unless a recession emerges unexpectedly.

Bullish or bearish

I hold a moderately bullish view. Liquidity conditions are improving, rates are near their peak, and earnings remain resilient across large-cap tech and consumer names. That said, volatility will stay elevated because markets disagree on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts.

Key levels to watch

• S&P 500: support near 5,000 to 5,030.

• VIX: a sustained slide below 15 would confirm stabilisation.

• Treasury yields: a break below 4.2 percent on the 10-year strengthens the bullish case.

Overall, bias leans upward, but with controlled risk and selective entries rather than broad chasing.