To The Moon

In the past five days, $Avino Silver & Gold Mines(ASM)$ 's share price has risen by 31.15%.

U.S. stocks lift on the last day of November as Wall Street eagerly awaits the results of Black Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and needs a slightly larger gain to avoid its first down month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%.

The best-performing concepts is Precious Metals & Minerals Concept. Considering the different perceptions of the stock, this time TigerPicks chose $Avino Silver & Gold Mines(ASM)$ to have a fundamental highlight to help users understand it better.

In the past five days, $Avino Silver & Gold Mines(ASM)$ 's share price has risen by 31.15%.

$Avino Silver & Gold Mines(ASM)$

Avino Silver & Gold is one of the strongest-performing precious metal miners this year; shareholders have seen a 430% return on their investment. This surge isn’t the result of a speculative discovery by a metals explorer; Avino is a profitable producing company with a clear path to growth.

Headquartered in Canada and with all projects in Mexico, it runs the Avino Mine, is ramping up the La Preciosa project, and is advancing an oxide tailings project. Combined, these projects are set to see Avino triple production within four years.

Strong gold and silver prices this year have added further support. Revenue is expected to reach record levels this year and increase further as production grows. A recent deal means Avino now owns 100% of the La Preciosa project, ensuring they capture full exposure to the project’s upside.

With operations growing from one mine to three, production tripling, and record-high precious metal prices, Avino is a company that is in the right place at the right time. Whilst the shares have had a strong year so far, I believe they could rise even further.

Q3 Earnings

Avino reported Q3 '25 production of 580,780 ounces of silver equivalent, a 13% decrease from the previous year.

Production fell at the sole producing Avino mine as mining proceeded through a planned lower-grade section as per the mine plan. This will bounce back but led to lower grades across the three main metals: silver (52 g/t vs. 63 g/t), gold (0.43 g/t vs. 0.46 g/t), and copper (0.39% vs. 0.58%). These lower grades more than offset the 21% higher mill throughput, with 188,757 tonnes of material processed.

Whilst production fell, record precious metal prices ensured revenue did the opposite. Realized silver prices rose 31% to $38.21/oz, gold rose 41% to $3,548/oz, and copper rose 7% to $9,793 per tonne. This led to revenues of $21.0 million in the quarter, 44% higher than the previous year.

Looking at cash flow, Avino reported cash flow from operating activities of $8.3 million, double the previous year. Free cash flow came in at $5.4 million, and after accounting for capital expenditures at the La Preciosa project, it was $4.5 million.

Overall, this translated to a net profit of $7.70 million, 559% higher than the $1.17 million profit a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, earnings came in even better at $11.65 million, up from $4.98 million a year earlier, and equivalent to $0.07 per share.

Production Growth

The key thesis behind an investment in Avino is the production growth story. Over the next four years, production is set to more than triple from around 2.5 million ounces of silver equivalent to around 8 million. This will shift Avino from being a single-mine operator into a multi-asset producer.

Today, production is anchored by the Avino Mine, which averages production of 2.5 million ounces of silver equivalent. With total measured and indicated resources amounting to 164 million ounces of silver equivalent, the mine will be producing for decades to come.

Avino has now reached an inflection point, with strong growth expected across the company. Combined with my positive view on the silver price, given growing demand and restricted supply, this makes me believe that Avino is in a position to generate strong cash flows as we head into 2026 and La Preciosa really ramps up.

Valuation

Avino is expected to reach 8.2 Moz silver equivalent production by 2029, with contributions from the Avino Mine (2.1 Moz), La Preciosa (3.8 Moz), and Oxide Tailings (2.3 Moz). Using conservative AISC assumptions ($17.65/oz overall), a 30% tax rate, and projecting 190.6 million shares by 2029 (5% annual dilution), the company is forecasted to generate $0.85 cash flow per share. Applying an 8× multiple gives a 2029 target price of $6.80, implying a 10% CAGR over four years and a buy rating.

Key risks include silver and gold price fluctuations, operational hazards, and non-tier-one jurisdiction exposure in Mexico, where regulatory and environmental uncertainties exist. Share dilution remains an important factor: while cash flow growth should reduce the need for equity issuance, investors must monitor whether increased production truly translates into per-share gains.

Conclusion

With silver prices at multi-decade highs and production set to triple, Avino Silver & Gold is primed to capitalize on these high prices. Latest results show revenues up, cash flow up, and profits up.

While there are several risks, notably the ongoing share dilution, as cash flow increases, this should reduce the need for equity-based financing. Under my price model, which accounts for ongoing share dilution, I get a price target of $6.80 in 2029, implying an upside of 46% from today’s prices.

As such, I assign a buy rating to Avino Silver & Gold.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Avino Silver & Gold in the last 3 months. The average price target is $6.05 with a high forecast of $7.40 and a low forecast of $4.25. The average price target represents a 8.04% change from the last price of $5.60.

Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4845453-avino-silver-and-gold-stock-q3-scaling-up-while-silver-hits-highs

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