To The Moon

I. December 2 Mag 7 Anomalies

Does Trading Volume Expose Institutional Intentions?

Volume Perspective: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ turnover far ahead, followed by $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ ; $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ saw institutional price target upgrades on AI breakthrough catalyst but average volume, same for MetaPlatforms,Inc.(META) .

News Highlights:

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS Annual Conference Highlights: Multi-industry partnerships落地, driving cloud security, finance, and sustainability

• $Apple(AAPL)$ defeated at EU Supreme Court, faces class action threat

• Bottom bounce! $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ gets Musk's endorsement

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ China November sales mark third growth this year

• Rumored $Apple(AAPL)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ cooperation expectations, Google dominates Android, Apple dominates iPhone

• HSBC: Gemini 3 successfully turns $Alphabet(GOOG)$ search "from defense to offense", price target raised to $370!

December Market Theme Will Be Tech Breakthrough vs Regulatory Policy Battle:

• Short-term catalysts: Gemini 3's actual contribution to Google search revenue, NVIDIA GPU capacity data, Tesla Cybertruck China approval

• Medium-term risks: Apple EU lawsuit chain reaction, US FTC review of Amazon e-commerce business

• Long-term theme: AI launched migration from training to inference edge, edge computing and terminal AI rise

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ strategy points out: "Mag 7 valuation divergence will intensify; companies with proprietary tech moats (GOOG's Gemini 3, NVDA's CUDA, AWS industry know-how) enjoy premium, while platform monopoly-dependent (Apple App Store) business models face regulatory discount."

II. Detailed News:

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bottom Bounce: Musk Endorsement, Technical Support Confirmed

After a deep correction, NVDA closed up 0.86% at $181.46, market cap $4.41T, with a massive $33.33B turnover. Catalyst came from Elon Musk's public recommendation on X platform: "NVIDIA is the first choice for AI infrastructure, no close second."

xAI is expanding its Memphis supercluster, expected to add 100,000 H200 chips. Technically, NVDA rebounded 7% from Nov 25 low of $169.55, with $180 key support confirmed, "double bottom" pattern basically established since mid-August, MACD golden cross formed.

"Now is fundamental and technical resonance," Piper Sandler noted, "While markets worry AI capex cycle peaking, actual demand from Tier 1 cloud vendors remains strong. The real challenge is launching Rubin architecture smoothly in H1 next year and maintaining 95%+ market share." NVDA's intraday $17.7B turnover topped Mag 7, showing intense capital focus.

2. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ "From Defense to Offense": Gemini 3 Reshapes Search, Price Target Raised to $370 (+17% Upside)

Title Correction: Original title had wrong subject, should be Google not NVIDIA. HSBC on Dec 2 issued heavy report raising GOOGL target to $370, citing new Gemini 3 model's success in turning Google search "from defense to offense." On this, GOOGL closed at $315.81, up 0.29% to $3.81T market cap.

Gemini 3's breakthrough lies in precise search intent prediction and multimodal real-time generation, first time suppressing emerging rivals like Perplexity AI on user experience. HSBC analysis believes this not only stabilizes Google 90%+ search market share, but could lift ARPU through new AI summary ad formats.

"Markets previously feared search would be disrupted by AI chatbots, but Gemini 3 proves Google can turn AI into a moat," HSBC tech analyst noted, "$370 target corresponds to 17.5x 2026 EV/EBITDA, still 17% upside from current."

Notably, the AI breakthrough also spawned rumors. Per The Information, Apple and Google execs have had frequent contacts, speculation of tacit market division deal—Google focuses on Android, Apple on iPhone. Google currently pays Apple $18-20B annually to maintain iOS default search engine status, both sides already cooperating on Gemini integration.

But analysts warn such "tacit understanding" would face strict EU Digital Markets Act scrutiny, with low probability of落地. Google's real challenge is translating Gemini 3's tech advantage into real search ad revenue growth next fiscal year.

3. Cloud 2.0 Era: AWS Industry Solutions Drive $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Steady Rise

Amazon AWS annual conference became another highlight, pushing AMZN to close at $234.42, up 0.23% to $2.51T market cap. The conference sent clear signal: cloud services have shifted from "tech export" to "industry deep dive."

AWS signed multiple strategic agreements across finance, automotive, energy, with three core scenarios落地:

• Cloud security compliance: Customized solutions for highly regulated industries like finance, healthcare

• Financial services innovation: Open banking platforms with regional banks

• Enterprise carbon footprint: Supply chain carbon tracking SaaS

"This marks cloud computing's entry into value creation's new phase," MorganStanley(MS) noted, "Industry solution gross margins are 5-8 points higher than infrastructure services, directly improving AWS profit structure." AWS currently contributes 70%+ of Amazon's operating profit, its strategic upgrade seen as valuation re-rating key.

Technically, AMZN rebounded 8.5% from Nov 21 low of $216.35, with volume gradually expanding, showing institutional capital building positions.

4. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ : Hidden Off-Balance-Sheet Liabilities, $80B "Invisible" Expansion

Dec 2 close at $490.00 (+0.67%), market cap $3.64T, stock performance steady. But little-known is the staggering off-balance-sheet liabilities piling up.

Soaring Lease Liabilities: Data center "Shadow Financing"

Per financial statements, Microsoft's finance lease liabilities tripled in 2023-2025 to $46B, with another $93B operating lease commitments off-balance-sheet. Combined $139B essentially finances its 2025-2027 $80B data center buildout.

Core Strategic Moves:

• Deep OpenAI integration: Microsoft holds 49% stake in OpenAI, plus "compute-for-equity" agreement making Azure exclusive training base, locking in $45B+ revenue over 5 years

• ASIC chip acceleration: Leasing funds flow into Maia 100/200 ASIC tapeouts, trying to reduce NVIDIA dependency in AI inference

• Global geo-layout: Data centers in Poland, Israel, India to avoid single-market policy risks

This model is classic Microsoft: maintain "net cash" look for credit rating, while moving massive capex off balance sheet through leases and project finance. As the company said in Q3 2025 earnings call: "We ensure diversified financing channels to maintain infrastructure leadership in global AI race."

5. $Apple(AAPL)$ Hit by "Black Swan": EU Defeat Opens Pandora's Box

Apple suffered major legal setback at EU Supreme Court. Dec 2 close at $286.19 (+1.09%), $4.25T market cap, but post-market sentiment turned cautious.

EU Supreme Court upheld ruling that Apple's Ireland tax benefits constituted illegal state aid, meaning:

• Immediate hit: €13B tax plus interest repayment

• More dangerous: Opens gates for EU class actions, multiple consumer groups preparing App Store antitrust suits

• Walled garden crisis: May be forced to open sideloading, cut 15-30% commission fees

"This is Apple's 'Cassandra moment' in EU," legal experts noted. EU market accounts for 25% of Apple revenue, services gross margin 70%. If commission forced down, EPS could face 3-5% negative impact over three years.

Despite stock gain, options market shows Dec puts surged 42% (overstated, actual +28%), implied volatility rose to 35% (overstated, actual 31%), investors actively hedging downside.

6. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : $30B Debt Gamble on AI, Leverage Hits 10-Year High

Dec 2, Meta announced AI assistant integration into WhatsApp Business for 200M merchants, first large-scale Llama monetization attempt, seen as "key test of open-source model."

Meta closed at $647.10 (+0.97%), but bond market reaction more cautious—Meta 2035 bond yield rose from 5.5% to 6.2% (overstated, actual +35bps), credit spread widened 70bps (overstated, actual 35bps).

Dec 2025 debt structure raises rating concerns:

• Louisiana AI campus: 5GW capacity, world's largest AI data center, 15 sq km, enough power to light New York City

• GPU prepayment lock: 60% of $30B bonds for prepaying NVIDIA H200 chips, ensuring H1 2026 supply

• Llama open-source: Plans Q1 2026 Llama 4, rumored 10T parameters, $5B+ training cost

Meta's 2025 financing strategy more aggressive. After $30B bond completion in September, Meta is negotiating another $30B private credit line with Apollo/Brookfield/Carlyle—first in company history.

Three risk points:

• Debt sustainability: If private credit closes, total debt hits $60B, annual interest $5.5B = 35% of 2025 estimated FCF

• AI ROI uncertainty: Llama praised by developers but monetization path longer than OpenAI closed model

• Energy/regulatory constraints: Louisiana data center drew environmental protests (15% of state power); EU Digital Services Act may restrict Meta AI data usage

7. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ China's "Third Spring": Nov Sales +12% MoM

Tesla China Dec 3 announced deliveries: Nov sales +12% MoM, third monthly growth in 2025, Model Y refresh production stable at 2,200-2,400 units/day.

Competition precision:

• BYD: Nov pure EV 182K units (not 300K, latter includes PHEV)

• Tesla pricing: Model 3 RWD ¥235.9K (¥223.9K after subsidy), not ¥231.9K

Key variables reality:

• Cybertruck China: <20% chance of H1 2026 approval, size/safety standards don't comply

• FSD China: Under MIIT review, data localization may cripple features, not full version

Conclusion: Tesla China sales indeed warming, but "third spring" label premature. More like short-term promotion-driven pulse growth. Sustainability needs Q1 2026 observation.