To The Moon

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ I’m leaning into $MSFT because the intraday shock from a misreported fake AI sales quota cut created a clean dislocation in a tape still rewarding megacap execution and strong breadth.

Confidence in AI enterprise spending remains intact, yet today shows how fast anonymous sources can force liquidity air pockets before fundamentals reassert.

Immediate Market Read

At 04:33 NZT on 04Dec25, $MSFT hit 475.82, down more than 2% from prior close, dragging Nasdaq futures over 250 points. Microsoft then directly refuted the quota-cut headline. Price bounced off the lower Keltner Channel near 476.50 and reclaimed 482.46 by midday EST, confirming responsive buyers. Options activity concentrated in 06Dec25 480C with more than 4,200 contracts and premium rising 12% while skew held flat at minus 0.8 vols. Lack of bid in 470P flow signalled no institutional unwind. Meanwhile, $DJI +0.58%, $SPX +0.18%, $IXIC +0.13%, and $VIX down 1.99% to 16.26 into 05:50 NZT show risk appetite remains broad based.

Short Term Outlook

My base case is 65% odds for a move into 488 to 493 by 09Dec25 if 476.50 holds as a pivot and $SPX breadth stays near 2.0 advance-decline ratio as the Fed path continues to price a December cut. I assign 20% for a range lock between 477 and 485 if headline speculation lingers. The remaining 15% tail opens 465 if $VIX >18 forces a vol-driven reload. Base case invalidates on a daily close under 476.50.

I’m treating $MSFT as a high-conviction rotation magnet because Azure demand and AI inference workloads continue to scale faster than any temporary sales friction leaks, and capital is allocating to execution moats rather than anonymous-source noise.

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