To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟Strategy Inc $Strategy(MSTR)$  is the world's first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.  Its CEO Michael Saylor is a strong advocate of Bitcoin and has adopted Bitcoin as MSTR primary treasury reserve.  In addition  to that,  MSTR  provides AI powered enterprise analytics software, integrating its analytics expertise with its commitment to digital asset growth.

Is MSTR a Buy or a Bye?

MSTR reached its 52 week high of USD 457.22 in July 2025 and is now down about 60% from that peak.  The decline is directly tied to the recent Bitcoin downturn, with MSTR amplifying the volatility of Bitcoin.

Another factor contributing to MSTR's recent underperformance is the erosion of its Net Asset Value (NAV )  which is largely composed of its Bitcoin holdings.

The Case for Buying MSTR :

Leveraged Bitcoin exposure : For investors with a strong bullish conviction on Bitcoin, MSTR's strategy offers a leveraged way to gain exposure of Bitcoin through a stock.

Some analysts still see a significant upside to price targets, primarily driven by its unique role as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin investment and its aggressive accumulation strategy.

Benchmark's analyst Mark Palmer has repeatedly set a price target of USD 705 for MSTR, with the most recent public mention on December 1 25.  Bernstein's analyst Gautam Chhugani has also assigned a high price target of USD 600 in early December 25.

Palmer and other bullish analysts believe in the long term appreciation of Bitcoin.  They see MSTR as the most liquid and direct vehicle to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin's upside without the risks associated with cryptocurrency mining. 

Palmer argues that MSTR offers a way to invest in Bitcoin through a publicly traded and regulated company which no passive vehicle can replicate. 

Palmer and other bulls have also pointed to MSTR's operational resilience.  Despite concerns over its USD 8.2 billion in convertible debt, Palmer had stated that Bitcoin would need to drop significantly for MSTR to face debt coverage issues. 

It is important to note that these high price targets and bullish ratings are based on the premise of a significant rise in Bitcoin's value and are not without risk. 

MSTR's set up of  USD 1.44 billion reserve fund announced in December 25:  The main benefit is that it significantly lowers the chance that MSTR will be forced to sell its Bitcoin during a downturn to meet financial obligations.  The reserve covers an estimated 21 months of dividend and debt interest payments, providing a substantial buffer. 

This is a prudent risk management move for MSTR.  It reinforces Michael Saylor's "Hold Forever" strategy and demonstrates a commitment to operational resilience, even amidst market stress. 

The Case to Sell or Hold MSTR:

Index Exclusion Risk : MSTR faces a crucial decision from MSCI on January 15 2026 regarding its inclusion in major indices.  If excluded, it could trigger billions of dollars in passive fund outflows, potentially causing heavy selling pressure. 

Extreme Volatility : MSTR exhibits a very high beta.  This means its price swings are often more dramatic than Bitcoin.  This makes it a high and  risky investment.    

Michael Saylor has consistently and openly acknowledged that MSTR's stock is highly volatile because of its heavy exposure to Bitcoin.  Rather than seeing this volatility as a negative, he often frames it as a necessary characteristic of a leveraged investment in a high growth, high performance asset like Bitcoin. 

Growing Retail Investors' Bearishness:  Retail investor sentiment has turned Bearish, particularly on platforms like Reddit.  There were discussions highlighting concerns about MSTR's debt, dilution and the sustainability of its strategy amidst a prolonged Bitcoin downtrend. 

Cash Reserve Concerns :  Despite establishing a USD 1.44 billion reserve in dollars to cover expenses and reassure investors, the market seems to prioritise Bitcoin's decline and index exclusion risks over MSTR's efforts to shore up its balance sheet. 

Concluding Thoughts 

MSTR is a Buy only for the most conviction driven and risk tolerant investors who believe in Bitcoin's long term appreciation and are confident of MSTR's ability to navigate current challenges.  These investors may also be willing to withstand extreme volatility. 

For those seeking a simpler, less volatile part to Bitcoin exposure or those worried about the upcoming MSCI decision, the risks may outweigh the potential rewards. 

The path forward for MSTR is a tightrope walk between a shimmering, decentralised ideal and the cold hard realities of Wall Street market mechanism.  MSTR's story is a powerful reminder that even the most convicted beliefs, face their harshest trials when the market and fear come knocking. 

For me personally, I will wait for MSCI decision on January 15 before commiting further. 

As Warren Buffett famously said "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." 

In the case of MSTR, the impatient ones are the ones who panic sold on Bitcoin's volatility or the MSCI rumours.  The patient investors are the ones waiting for clarity and possibly a better entry point or a simply holding for the very long term. 

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