To The Moon

Tesla’s mid-week lift reflects relief rather than genuine fundamental improvement. The China figures were stronger than feared and Germany’s decline, while negative, was less severe than the market had priced in. When expectations are extremely low, even “less bad” data can trigger a rebound. This is what you are seeing now.

Reading the Sentiment

Short-term sentiment has shifted from capitulation towards cautious optimism. Traders are asking whether Tesla has finally reached a demand floor, especially in China where competition remains intense but year-end promotions often support volumes. The recent strength in China sales suggests Tesla still has pricing power at the right discount levels, which helps sentiment.

Is a Year-End Rally Possible?

A limited year-end rally is possible, but it depends on three conditions.

1. Consistent China weekly sales

The market needs to see multiple consecutive weeks of stabilisation. One strong week is not enough.

2. No fresh margin shocks

If Tesla avoids further aggressive price cuts, investors may regain confidence in earnings quality.

3. Macro tailwinds

If markets maintain their current constructive tone, Tesla can ride the broader December strength.

If these hold, Tesla could grind higher into year-end, though not in a straight line.

Overall View

This rebound is more of a sentiment reset than the start of a major trend. Tesla requires sustained demand clarity to justify a stronger rally. For now, the tone is improving, but conviction remains fragile.