To The Moon

$AAPL$
Key News:

• Apple (AAPL) continued its rally on Tuesday, hitting an all-time intraday high of $287.4 before closing up 1.09% at $284.15.

• Supply chain sources indicate Apple's first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Fold, has made significant progress in R&D, currently in engineering verification and pre-production stages, with a potential launch by late next year.

• IDC forecasts Apple’s 2025 iPhone shipments will reach 247.4 million units, up 6.1% YoY, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series in China.

Options Analysis:

• Current price: $284.15. Implied Volatility (IV): 23.17% (6.4th percentile), indicating low expected volatility.

• Call/Put Ratio: 2.02, showing dominant bullish sentiment.

• This Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Expected range: $280–290. Key resistance at $285 (Put OI 8,806; Call OI 45,168). Strong support at $280 (Put OI 18,519).

• Next Week (Dec 12 Expiry): Expected range: $275–295. Upside bias shown by $290 Call OI 37,927. Secondary support at $275 (Put OI 3,986).

Strategy Idea:

• Sell Put: $AAPL 20251212 275.00 PUT$ 
  Premium: $0.84, Delta: -0.16
  Rationale: Delta < 0.25 (far OTM); low IV favors premium selling; $275 is strong support.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks below $272 (-4.3%).

$MSFT$
Key News:

• Microsoft clarified rumors, denying it cut AI sales quotas for sales staff. Stock down 1.69% to $481.73.

• Detailed its $15.2B UAE investment: $7.3B upfront for AI infrastructure, $7.9B from 2026 for cloud/AI data center expansion.

• Diverging views on AI prospects are increasing stock volatility.

Options Analysis:

• This Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Expected range: $470–490. IV 25.47% (55.6th percentile). Key support at $470 (Put OI 5,300); resistance at $485–490 (Call OI cluster).

• Next Week (Dec 12 Expiry): Expected range: $465–500. Support at $470 (Put OI 1,770); resistance at $500 (Call OI 4,234).

• Call/Put Ratio 2.05 shows bullish tilt but clear divergence.

• Technicals: Support $470 (Nov low); resistance $495 (near 50-day MA). Block trade: 1,210 lots of $440 Put bought, indicating downside hedging.

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor (Neutral, suited for steady volatility)

• Sell Put: $MSFT 20251212 475.0 PUT$  (~$5.70, Delta -0.42)

• Sell Call: $MSFT 20251212 490.0 CALL$  (~$2.70, Delta 0.26)

• Buy Put: $MSFT 20251212 470.0 PUT$  (~$3.75, Delta -0.32)

• Buy Call: $MSFT 20251212 495.0 CALL$  (~$1.75, Delta 0.19)

• Net Credit: ~$2.80 per share ($8.40 sold – $5.60 bought)

• Profit Range: $472.20 – $492.80

• Stop: Close if stock breaks $470 or $495; max loss ~$2.20.
  *Rationale: Steady volatility; high probability of consolidation between $475–490; next-week expiry reduces gamma risk.*

$GOOGL$
Key News:

• HSBC raised Google's target to $370, believing Gemini 3 LLMs have mitigated generative AI's threat to search.

• Amazon’s Trainium3 AI chip intensifies competition vs. Google and NVIDIA.

• OpenAI developing "Garlic" model to counter Google's AI advances. Stock strong, closing at $319.63 on Dec 3 (+1.21%).

Options Analysis:

• IV: 33.57% (37.6th percentile), moderate expectations. Call/Put Ratio 1.92 favors bulls.

• This Week (Dec 5): Expected range: $305–335. Key support at $315 (Put OI 10,598); resistance at $330 (Call OI 19,452).

• Next Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $310–340. $320 strike is a key pivot (high OI).

• Technicals: Support $315 (recent low), $305 (psychological); Resistance $330 (Call cluster), $340 (upside target).

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor (This Week Expiry)

• Sell Put: $GOOGL 20251205 315.0 PUT$  (~$1.20)

• Sell Call: $GOOGL 20251205 325.0 CALL$  (~$1.12)

• Buy Put: $GOOGL 20251205 310.0 PUT$  (~$0.41)

• Buy Call: $GOOGL 20251205 335.0 CALL$  (~$0.14)

• Net Credit: ~$1.77 per share

• Profit Range: $315 – $325

• Stop: Close single leg if loss reaches 2x credit; exit overall if stock breaks $310 or $335. Monitor delta for neutral exposure.
  Rationale: Matches expected range; moderate IV with favorable theta decay.

$META$
Key News:

• Bipartisan lawmakers accuse Meta: ~10% of revenue ($16B) from illegal ads; platform involved in 1/3 of U.S. fraud cases, possibly linked to >$50B consumer losses in 2024.

• Instagram requires U.S. employees to return to office by Feb 2026. AI talent exodus continues; Chief Scientist Yann LeCun departed in Nov.

• Current price $639.60, down ~20% from recent highs.

Options Analysis:

• IV: 31.63% (27.6th percentile). Call/Put Ratio 2.08 shows bullish bias.

• This Week (Dec 5): Expected range: $610–670. Support $610 (Nov low); resistance $670 (near 20-day MA).

• Next Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $600–690. Puts concentrated at $640–650 (OI >3,000); break below $640 could accelerate selling.

• Max Put OI at $640 (put-call equilibrium); watch for downside risk if broken.

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor (Range-bound view)

• Sell Put: $META 20251212 610.0 PUT$  (~$11.10)

• Sell Call: $META 20251212 655.0 CALL$  (~$5.37)

• Buy Put: $META 20251212 595.0 PUT$  (~$1.04)

• Buy Call: $META 20251212 670.0 CALL$  (~$2.21)

• Net Credit: ~$13.22 per share

• Breakeven: $596.78 – $668.22

• Stop: Close if stock breaks $605 or $660; single-leg stop at 2x credit (~$26.44).
  *Rationale: Collects time value amid elevated IV; dual protection limits risk; estimated win rate 68%. Call/Put ratio still bullish but political risk caps upside.*

$AMZN$
Key News:

• Snowflake AWS Marketplace volume doubled in 2025, sales >$20B.

• AWS expands partnership with NVIDIA, integrating NVLink for Trainium4 chips.

• Amazon launches Trainium3 AI chip, competing with NVIDIA GPUs.

• AWS re:Invent kicks off; focus on new chips & "Frontier Agent" AI software.

• Citi sees Amazon's NVIDIA-compatible strategy as flexible; Wells Fargo keeps Overweight, target $295.

Options Analysis:

• Current price: $232.38. IV: 32.38% (36th percentile). Call/Put Ratio 2.66 shows strong bullish sentiment.

• This Week (Dec 5): Expected range: $225–240; elevated IV reflects AWS event risk.

• Next Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $220–245; range widens, IV stable.

• Key levels: Support $225 (heavy Put OI), $230 (gamma peak); Resistance $240 (Call OI cluster).

• Block trades show activity in $230 Puts and $240 Calls.

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor (Neutral expectation)

• Sell Call: $AMZN 20251212 245.0 CALL$  @ 0.73

• Buy Call: $AMZN 20251212 250.0 CALL$  @ 0.37

• Sell Put: $AMZN 20251212 225.0 PUT$  @ 1.58

• Buy Put: $AMZN 20251212 220.0 PUT$  @ 0.75

• Net Credit: $1.19 per share ($2.31 sold – $1.12 bought)

• Profit Range: $223.81 – $246.19 (covers ~86% of expected range)

• Stop: Close if stock breaks $218 or $247; max loss ~$1.81.
  *Rationale: Collects time value with high IV (32%); double short strategy profits in $220–245 range, aligning with AMZN's short-term consolidation. Key levels $225/$240 provide added support/resistance.*