To The Moon

Two stocks I’m watching today 30Dec25 🇺🇸 | 31Dec25 🇳🇿

Energy is rotating back into focus quietly. Not on breakout euphoria, but on the clear deceleration of downside pressure. After months of oversupply-driven weakness, crude is stabilising into a geopolitically fragile backdrop, and volatility across energy equities is no longer being priced consistently. When price respects structure while volatility disconnects, resolution typically follows.

⛽ Devon Energy $DVN

DVN continues to grind higher after bottoming in April and is now +13–14% YTD after April lows, trading around the mid-$30s following its recent rebound. Price action remains controlled rather than emotional, which matters at this stage of the cycle.

On the 4H chart, DVN is holding in the upper half of its Keltner channel and repeatedly defending the mid band on shallow pullbacks. The EMA stack remains constructive, with the 13 and 21 EMA holding above the 55 EMA, signalling trend continuation rather than exhaustion. Bollinger bands are beginning to re-expand after prior compression, highlighting rising resolution risk.

The defining feature here is volatility. Options remain exceptionally cheap, with SVI sitting in the lowest percentiles. That is an extreme condition given the current crude tape. When price trends while volatility stays suppressed, repricing tends to be abrupt rather than gradual.

Sector confirmation is broad and supportive.

• S&P 500 Energy Index .SPNY firm despite thin holiday trade

• Brent crude near $61.35 after approximately +2% gains

• WTI crude holding above $58 following a +2% move

This move is being driven by risk premium rather than demand optimism. Yemen-related Middle East tensions remain elevated following Saudi-linked strikes, Russia is reassessing its peace posture after alleged drone incidents, and Ukrainian energy infrastructure strikes continue. Trump–Zelenskyy talks have failed to deliver clarity. Supply risk is back in the conversation.

Leadership is not narrow. Chevron, Exxon, Diamondback and Texas Pacific Land are all participating, with refiners Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum also firmer. Breadth like this materially reduces fade risk.

As long as DVN continues to respect the Keltner mid band and the 55 EMA, structure remains intact. Suppressed volatility in a firming crude regime is not something I dismiss lightly.

🛢️ APA Corporation $APA

APA expresses the same macro backdrop, but with a very different volatility profile.

After pulling back from December highs, price has stabilised and is holding its 80-day moving average near $24. On both the 4H and 30-minute charts, price is compressing tightly within the Keltner bands, with Bollinger volatility contracting again after the prior downside impulse. That suggests absorption rather than extension.

The EMA structure is flattening, not rolling over. The intermediate uptrend remains intact while the 80 DMA holds.

Volatility here is already elevated. APA’s SVI sits around 36%, meaning options are pricing larger-than-usual swings. When price compresses while volatility refuses to collapse, expansion tends to follow. This stands in direct contrast to DVN’s suppressed volatility profile.

🌍 Macro snapshot

Oil is ticking higher as peace talks fail to deliver a clean breakthrough and China signals fresh support for growth. WTI is holding above $58, while Brent is pushing toward the $61–62 zone, levels that matter both technically and psychologically.

Even with a five-month downtrend driven by oversupply concerns, geopolitics continue to enforce a floor. Ukraine-related energy infrastructure strikes, Middle East risk tied to Iran and Yemen, and Venezuelan supply uncertainty are keeping systematic shorts from fully capitulating. That hesitation is important.

When price stabilises while trend-following exposure remains restrained, downside momentum typically fades before upside is chased.

🔎 Big picture

I’m not chasing energy strength. I’m watching volatility and structure realign alongside cross-asset confirmation.

DVN reflects cheap convexity inside a steady trend.

APA reflects compression with volatility already awake.

Same macro driver. Two very different expressions. When volatility speaks before price, energy usually listens.

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