To The Moon

Trump has released photos showing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured aboard a U.S. amphibious assault ship—eyes and ears covered—as he is transported to New York to stand trial.

Strangely, the look almost resembles a hip-hop star.

With the regime toppled, the obvious question now is: how do you profit from nation-building in Venezuela?

Distressed sovereign debt is the most direct play. Venezuelan bonds still trade around 10–20 cents on the dollar, but post-regime restructuring estimates point to 30–55 cents recoveries—implying 2–3x upside. Asset managers and restructuring advisors stand to benefit most here.

The physical rebuild comes next. Venezuela’s heavy-oil infrastructure was designed by specific OEMs, making sole-source repair contracts likely. Restarting production also requires specialized refinery equipment and massive imports of diluent before any meaningful exports can resume.

On the financial side, banks positioned as cross-border bridges for dollar flows, remittances, and aid money could see outsized activity.

Energy is the final leg. Chevron is uniquely positioned to ramp production quickly, while U.S. Gulf Coast refiners—built for Venezuela’s heavy, sour crude—would benefit from cheaper feedstock and wider margins.

AI was one of the biggest trades of 2025.

After this abrupt regime change, nation-building—from bonds and banks to oil and infrastructure—may become one of the most asymmetric trades of 2026.

1. Distressed Debt & Bonds

($ASHM, $HLI, $LAZ)

This is the most direct regime-change trade.

Ashmore ($ASHM)

Ashmore is the largest institutional holder of Venezuelan sovereign debt. Bonds currently trade at 10–20 cents on the dollar, depending on sanctions dynamics.

In a post-regime-change restructuring, major institutions (e.g. Citi, Allianz) estimate 30–55 cents recovery, implying a 2–3x uplift on deeply marked-down assets.

Houlihan Lokey ($HLI)

Primary financial advisor to the Venezuela Creditor Committee. In sovereign restructurings, advisors earn substantial success fees, making HLI a classic “picks-and-shovels” play.

Lazard ($LAZ)

A global leader in sovereign restructurings (Greece, Ukraine). Venezuela’s debt stack may be the most complex in history, and Lazard directly benefits from that complexity.

2. Heavy Crude Infrastructure Rebuild

(Paris: TE, $GHM)

Technip Energies (TE)

The historical architect of Venezuela’s critical oil infrastructure. A new government is likely to award sole-source or no-bid contracts to the original OEM to accelerate repairs. Bringing in new firms would take years.

Graham Corp ($GHM)

Manufactures vacuum ejector systems used in refineries and upgraders. Venezuela’s heavy crude must be distilled under vacuum to prevent coking. Any meaningful restart requires this equipment.

3. Diluent Supply Chain

($TRGP)

Venezuela cannot export heavy crude at scale without importing large volumes of diluent (naphtha or natural gasoline).

Targa Resources ($TRGP) operates the Galena Park Marine Terminal, a major U.S. hub for diluent exports.

A shift away from Iranian supply back to U.S. sources would drive an immediate surge in volumes through Galena Park.

4. Banking & Capital Flows

(Panama: MVZ.A / MVZ.B)

Mercantil is a rare case: a Venezuelan banking group listed in Panama with a U.S. footprint.

It is a natural financial bridge for dollarized flows, remittances, aid money, and reconstruction capital moving from the U.S. and Miami back into Caracas.

5. Energy & Refining

($CVX, $VLO, $PSX)

Chevron ($CVX)

The clearest beneficiary. Chevron never fully exited Venezuela and retains staff, OFAC licenses, and operational assets (Petroboscan, Petropiar) ready to ramp quickly.

Valero ($VLO) & Phillips 66 ($PSX)

Gulf Coast refineries were specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy, sour crude. Since sanctions, they’ve relied on costlier alternatives. A return of Venezuelan supply would lower feedstock costs and expand margins.

Marathon Petroleum $MPC

6. Oil Tankers:

Trump for American oil majors to invest billions in rebuilding infrastructure—could unlock significant output growth over the coming years. This ramp-up would require transporting vastly more heavy sour crude to refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Asia, and elsewhere, boosting demand for crude and product tankers.Increased export volumes: Higher production (potentially returning to multi-million bpd levels) means more cargoes, elevating tanker utilization rates and day rates, especially for VLCCs (very large crude carriers) and Suezmax tankers used in long-haul trades. $FRO (focused on VLCCs) and $NAT (Suezmax specialist) stand to gain directly from crude shipments, while $STNG could benefit if refined product exports rise alongside.

Frontline $FRO

Scorpio Tankers $STNG

Nordic American Tankers $NAT

Closing Thought

Artificial intelligence was one of the most profitable trades of 2025, and momentum continues into 2026.

But with an abrupt regime change in Venezuela, nation-building—from banks and bonds to oil, refining, and infrastructure—may become one of the most asymmetric trades of 2026.

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