Would I sell or add at $4,600?
I would add selectively, not sell, assuming this is not a forced-liquidity event. A dip of this magnitude after a parabolic move is consistent with position cleansing, not trend failure. The key is position sizing, not conviction.
Is the bull market still intact?
Yes, structurally. The correction looks like a volatility reset rather than a regime change.
Why the bull case still holds
Macro floor remains firm: real yields are capped, fiscal deficits persist, and central-bank gold accumulation remains strong.
Geopolitical and policy risk premiums have not unwound meaningfully.
Demand is diversifying: central banks, long-term allocators, and retail hedgers are all present, not just fast money.
What this move likely was
A crowded positioning shake-out after extreme momentum.
Derisking linked to broader asset volatility, not gold-specific fundamentals.
Silver’s whipsaw reinforces that this was leverage being flushed, not demand disappearing.
How I would approach it
Gold: Add in tranches around $4,600–4,500. A clean break below $4,400 would force a reassessment.
Silver: Higher beta, higher risk. Only add if you can tolerate sharp drawdowns; otherwise, wait for stabilisation.
Bottom line
This feels like a violent pause within a secular bull, not the end of it. Selling into this volatility risks exiting a trend that is still supported by macro reality. The smarter play is patience, staggered adds, and strict risk control.
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