AMD, SMCI, QCOM, ARM Earnings: Can Legacy Semis Strike Back?
Recent market performance has left many tech investors disheartened. Compared to last year's widespread euphoria, the semiconductor sector seems to have been "abandoned" by the market, with capital fiercely flowing towards the latest market darling – the memory section.
While memory giants like Hynix and Micron reap huge profits from AI server demand, logic chip and architecture powerhouses are grappling with "growth premium" scrutiny. This week, AMD, SMCI, Qualcomm, and ARM, four companies at the center of the storm, will release their earnings reports.
From "Storytelling" to "Order Books"
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$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$:Challenging NVIDIA as the "Number Two Player" The market is no longer satisfied with Lisa Su showcasing the MI455 chip; they want to see concrete revenue contributions. Despite KeyBanc recently raising its price target to $270, a P/E of 128x still makes conservatives uneasy.
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$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$: In the Doldrums or Pre-Dawn? The demand for liquid-cooled servers is not the issue; the problem lies in the supply chain and profit margins. Whether management can prove that the $13 billion backlog will translate into profits as expected will determine if they can emerge from last year's shadow.
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$Qualcomm(QCOM)$: The "Disappointed" in the Mobile Market As market darlings shift to memory and AI servers, Qualcomm's position in the mobile sector appears somewhat bleak. Although supported by automotive and IoT businesses, under the shadow of Apple's in-house modems, Qualcomm urgently needs to demonstrate its monetization capabilities in AI PCs and edge AI.
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$ARM Holdings(ARM)$: The Ultimate Test of High Valuation Down 38% in three months, its P/E ratio is still twice the industry average. If the growth in ARM V9 architecture licensing fees cannot offset the valuation bubble, this "semiconductor gem" may continue to shrink.
Guess the Direction & Share 1000 Tiger Coins!
Is the market "buy the rumor, sell the news" or "exceeding expectations for a big jump"?
We invite you to predict the price movement (Jump or Drop) for the first trading day after earnings release for these four companies!
How to Participate: Leave your predictions for the price direction (Jump for rise, Drop for fall) for these four stocks in the comments.
Prize Rule: All participants who correctly guess the direction for all four companies will share 1000 Tiger Coins!
Comment Example:
AMD: Jump | SMCI: Jump | QCOM: Drop | ARM: Drop
Reason: I believe AMD's AI demand remains strong enough to support a stock jump; however, Qualcomm might experience a pullback due to the mobile market's drag.
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My predictions:
AMD: Jump | SMCI: Jump | QCOM: Drop | ARM: Drop
I expect $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ to benefit from solid AI accelerator momentum and data center demand, enough to drive a post-arnings bounce. $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ , despite past issues, could see a relief rally if management shows backlog conversion and margin stabilization.
$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ still faces headwinds from a weak mobile market, with AI PC & edge AI contributions likely too early to impress. $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ , even after a sharp correction, remains, highly valued & if licensing growth doesn’t clearly exceed expectations, downside pressure may continue.
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Traders anticipate a move of approximately ±7.5% to 8%. While AMD has historically declined after the last four reports, bullish technical setups and record revenue expectations for data center sales suggest potential for a jump back toward record highs of $265.
SMCI (Super Micro Computer): Drop
Despite high revenue growth expectations, the stock faces intense skepticism due to a track record of missing estimates in six of the last eight quarters. Options markets imply a 6.03% move, with technical analysis suggesting a drop toward 2024 lows if key support at $27 is lost.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Drop
Technical indicators lean bearish, with the stock trading below major moving averages. Analysts have recently lowered price targets due to decreased EPS estimates.
ARM Holdings: Drop
ARM has a specific pattern of dropping even after beating EPS estimates; for instance, a recent beat was followed by a 1.21% decline the next day.
Reason: I believe AMD's AI demand remains strong enough to support a stock jump; however, Qualcomm might experience a pullback due to the weak mobile market.
雖然海力士和美光等內存巨頭從人工智能服務器需求中獲得了鉅額利潤，但邏輯芯片和架構巨頭卻在努力應對“增長溢價”的審查。本週，AMD、SMCI、高通和ARM、處於風暴中心的四家公司將發佈財報。
QCOM: Drop | ARM: Drop
Reason: I believe AMD's MI455 traction is finally showing up in the books, whereas ARM's valuation remains too disconnected from its current licensing growth.
AMD: The Measured Retreat:DROP
Despite a beat & raise performance from Lisa Su, AMD faces the classic perfection problem. After a massive runup, the bar was set so high it requires a miracle to clear it. Expect a slight pullback as AMD catches its breath.
SMCI: The Volatile Rebound: JUMP
After a brutal year of margin anxiety, SMCI is finally showing that Volume is King. With AI server demand still insatiable, any sign of fiscal discipline will send SMCI back toward the stratosphere.
QCOM: The Gravity Check: DROP
Qualcomm is currently fighting a 2 front war: stagnating mobile phone sales & a transition to AI PCs. Unless QCOM reveal a surprise strategy, gravity may win this round.
ARM: The Royalty Rally: JUMP
ARM isn't just a chip company. It is a toll booth on the AI highway. With V9 architecture & power efficiency, ARM is poised to leap.
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Reason: I believe AMD's AI demand remains strong enough to support a stock jump; however, Qualcomm might experience a pullback due to the mobile market's drag.
Reason: silicon demand is high for the entire sector with manufacturing as a key constraint on the sector for volumes. The entire sector is positive outweighing recent underperformance of the silicon sector due to manufacturing concerns on ability of key manufacturers to scale
I don't think every company should really try to go all in on the ai hype... they are big names for a reason. If they choose to abandon what made them successful (like Qcom and their strength in the mobile phone industry), they are going to collapse spectacularly when the bubble bursts.
Simply put, there really is nothing wrong with solidifying your base, and if you can properly branch out into the ai, then by all means, go for it. But if you have to cut off whatever you are doing well, in order to cash in on the hype (looking at tsla and their insistence on doing "ai" and trying con people into investing continually), then that is poor long term planning.
I will be more than happy to invest in Qcom if they still place a heavy focus on their bread and butter, that is improving mobile phone chips on all fronts (power efficiency, processing speeds, etc.)
Expensive stocks may fall if they don’t beat expectations, while cheaper stocks with real sales may rise.
Reason: CPU server shortage may drive AMD higher