To The Moon

I have put out a few posts on the tussle for $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ by $Netflix(NFLX)$ and $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$ from even before onset of the saga. Below are what I have shared so far: (click on title to savour) 09 Jan 2026 - NFLX vs PSKY Clash : Best Entry Is Now ! 10 Dec 2025 - WBD bid war begins : NFLX vs PSKY vs Trump (?) 08 Dec 2025 - The Winner Is NFLX... Errh, Not So Fast ! 26 Nov 2025 - NFLX : BUY After 14 Nov Split. Don't Miss Out ! It’s slightly over two months since my first post and the end of the tunnel is still nowhere insight. Latest as of 17 Feb 2026 included: NFLX has permitted WBD to reopen the offer window for 7-days for PSKY to submit their final “best” bid. The offer extension has ended on Tue, 24 Feb 2026. PSKY’s offer details: The final offer is $31.00 in all-cash for 100% of WBD (up from previous $30). It also includes a daily ticking fee of $0.25 /share - per quarter after 30 Sep 2026, until the deal closes. This comes up to about $650 million quarterly. An increased to $7 billion regulatory termination fee (payable to WBD) if the deal fails to material. Payment of WBD's $2.8 billion NFLX termination fee. Agreement to eliminate WBD’s $1.5 billion financing cost related to its debt exchange.; as part of solvency certificates required by lending banks’ requirements. Plus any additional equity commitments for solvency. In total, PSKY is expected to pay between $123.7 - $125 billion, in its bid to buy WBD. The WBD Board has subsequently determined PSKY’s proposal "could reasonably lead to a Company Superior Proposal. This means NFLX officially has 4 days to mount a counteroffer ‘creatively’ that matches PSKY’s final offer by 28 Feb 2026. Will this be the “end all be all” to the deal of the century acquisition ? Apart from the crown jewel of buying into a treasure troves of blockbuster movies and classics, two pertinent questions remain: What will happen to NFLX or PSKY, when either of them lose the bidding war ? Securing the purchase approval is only Part 1 of 2 of the purchase process. There’s still the global regulatory clearance to be had. This is why I am not in the least bit surprise when an analyst foretell that it will be a miracle if the whole WBD sellout can be successfully completed by end December 2026, with the integration of WBD into whichever winner’s stable by H2 2027. The thing is while all these above board, below board tussle is ongoing, the world still needs to be entertain by quality content. As the saying goes - “Life goes on”. As such, if I were to take a step back from the current saga, I wonder too if the current moment presents a ‘last’ chance to buy NFLX cheap ? (where cheap is such a misnomer, agree ?) The post that I am sharing succinctly express what I have been thinking about, when it comes to NFLX. NFLX - Last Chance Buy ? In 2025, NFLX shook up the media and entertainment industry when it announced the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s (WBD) studio and streaming assets. It intends to unite WBD’s major content libraries like HBO with NFLX’s global platform. On 20 Jan 2026, NFLX modified the deal to an all-cash transaction, offering roughly $27.75 per WBD share. However, the deal caused a chain reaction with rival bidder PSKY - (i) raising its offers and (ii) triggering regulatory reviews and political scrutiny. All this display of aggression has led investors to raise concerns about debt burden and integration risk. Amidst all these dramatic manoeuvres, NFLX stock price has taken a hard hit as investors weigh whether the acquisition will ultimately go through. As of 24 Feb 2026 Year-to-date, NFLX stock is down -14.23% (as of 24 Feb 2026 closing). (see above) It is down -41.81 from its 52-week high of $134.12. Good news is NFLX’s fundamentals remain solid and show no signs of weakness. Is its recent dip a rare buying opportunity for long-term investors who can ignore the noise? Media Superpower in the Making. After years of dominating the streaming wars, NFLX finds itself in a tough spot as the stock has pulled back despite the company reporting solid earnings and continued subscriber growth for 2025. Q4 2025 earnings. For Q4 2025, total revenue increased +18% YoY to $12.05 billion, while diluted earnings per share (diluted) rose by +31% YoY to $0.56 /share. For FY 2025, paid memberships crossed the 325 million, resulting in a +16% YoY revenue increase of $45.2 billion. Although advertising business still in its early stages, growth has been rapid with ad revenue growing more than 2.5x, surpassing $1.5 billion. Operating margin expanded to 25% in Q4 2025 and 29.5% for the full year. NFLX ended 2025 with $9 billion in cash, $9.5 billion in free cash flow (FCF generated) and $14.5 billion in gross debt. This company is in a manageable position given its scale and profitability. 2026 Earnings. For 2026, Management anticipates sustained growth with: Revenue increasing from 12% to 14% to between $50.7 - $51.7 billion. Ad revenue could nearly double to $3 billion. Operating margin increasing to 31.5%. Not resting on its laurels, NFLX has also expanded its ecosystem beyond streaming to include live programming, gaming, and video podcasts. Why NFLX is Down? Even if WBD purchase fails, the bull case for NFLX remains strong. Afterall, the company is still reporting double-digit revenue growth and expanding operating margins, despite slowing streaming growth in mature markets. Meanwhile, ads are scaling rapidly and free cash flow (FCF) is approaching $11 billion. On the flip side, analysts highlighted that NFLX might be taking an unnecessary risk. With intense competition from legacy players like $Walt Disney(DIS)$ and tech giant $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, NFLX has recently stabilized its financials, which are based solely on organic growth rather than merger and acquisition (M&A). That suggests its core business has meaningful runway. Should NFLX overpays in WBD bidding war or regulators intervene, the stock could remain volatile for months to come. NFLX’s recent dip reflects acquisition uncertainty and not weakness in operations. When it comes to valuation, NFLX’s shares are valued at 24x forward earnings. That is reasonable, given that analysts expect earnings to increase by 23.3% and 21.1% over the next 2 years. Wall Street’s View ? Overall, NFLX is a “Moderate Buy”. Of the 43 analysts polled: 25 recommend a “Strong Buy”. 04 rated it a “Moderate Buy”. 13 recommended a “Hold”. 01 says “Strong Sell”. Based on the $78.04 closing price on 24 Feb 2026 and an average price target of $113.23, the stock offers a potential 31% upside over the next 12 months. With Wall Street’s high estimate of $137, suggested gains could reach +43% in 2026. Lest we forget, after the 10-for-1 forward split on 14 Nov 2025, NFLX was priced at $111.22. Based on 24 Feb 2026 closing price, an immediate purchase offers a 29.83% discount. Final Verdict NFLX is a profitable, margin-expanding, cash-generating global leader. In bidding for WBD, the company is choosing to be aggressive from a position of strength. One of its strengths lies its finances: PSKY's offer will cost an outlay of easily between $123.7 - $125 billion. It is a leveraged buyout of the entire WBD (Studios, Streaming, and Linear TV). PSKY purchase is considered by many analysts, a higher risk due to the massive debt required ($54 billion in debt commitments plus $43.6 billion in equity). On the other hand, NFLX will spend $83 billion: For WBD’s Studio & Streaming assets only. WBD’s "Linear TV" business will be spun off to shareholders. Its lower total outlay is considered "safer & easier" to fulfill via a strategic mix of (a) own cash reserves and (b) sophisticated institution loans. NFLX will use its cash reserves and 2026’s FCF of over $12 billion to partial fund the purchase. Other fundings sources include senior unsecured credit agreements ($25 billion) and committed debt financing ($42.2 billion) from $Wells Fargo(WFC)$, $BNP Paribas(BNPQF)$ and $HSBC Holdings PLC(HSBC)$. I foresee NFLX will remain volatile until an eventual WBD’s winner is finalize and announced, minus legal pursuit by the losing party. Technical Assessment. Performing a quick technical analysis of NFLX to determine if there exists further downwards or upwards pressure in the near term. Simple Moving Averages (SMA). NFLX’s 24 Feb 2026 closing price ($78.04) is below its SMA of 20-day ($80.18), 50-day ($86.74) and 200-day (110.52). This signals a sustained downtrend with potential support near $74 - 76 /share. MACD. NFLX’s MACD line (-3.01), is well below Signal Line (-3.23), with both indicators remain firmly below the Zero line. This reflects a persistent underlying downtrend and notable weakness in NFLX's current trajectory. Stock price is experiencing a breakdown, characterized by contracting negative momentum. Finally, “positive” divergence (0.22) indicates that downward momentum is actively strengthening rather than slowing down. RSI. With 14-day RSI coming in at 39.16, signals neutral-to-bearish momentum in the near term. There is likelihood of NFLX approaching oversold territory (RSI below 30) after a pullback from highs, consistent with its price lingering below key SMAs. NFLX remains undervalued based on its discounted cash flow (DCF), estimated intrinsic value of $85.95 /share. With that, any drop below $75 may be met with strong institutional buying. Personally, I will hold off NFLX purchase (at least this week) and observe how US market will react to Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address, where he insinuated at striking Iran (again), if a total nuclear renunciation is not secured. This could result in a knee jerk reaction in the US market. Unlike Venezuela where a counterattack is almost non-existent, the same cannot be said about Iran. Looking back at US attack of Iran’s nuclear facility on 22 Jun 2025, US market also fared badly immediately. Last but not least, in a twist of event, NFLX might walk away and let someone else overpay" as hinted to Variety by NFLX’s CEO Ted Sarandos recently. History has shown that NFLX has done that in a few occasions. Pays to be patient and wait a wee longer, no ? A better deal and a more stable NFLX, might just be around the corner. Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. US Mkt : Apr 2025 Liberation Day 2.0 AGAIN ? VTI vs SPY : Which ETF Owns the US Market ? Burry vs PLTR, NVDA & ORCL. How's it, so far ? Do you think Trump government will attack Iran a 2nd time, without fear of reprisal ? Do you think NFLX remains a “Buy” with or without securing a win to acquire WBD ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents