Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026)
Global and U.S. PMI Data
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February is forecasted at 51.2, signalling expansion and growth in global manufacturing sectors. This positive indicator suggests favourable conditions for the overall market. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI forecast stands at 52.3, reflecting growth in the global services sector and providing a constructive outlook for the global economy.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to reach 51.7, indicating expansion and growth within the manufacturing sector. However, the ISM Manufacturing Prices forecast is 60.6, which points to inflationary pressures as manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices report is due in the coming week, with the previous figure at a concerning 66.6, suggesting rapid growth in non-manufacturing prices and additional inflationary pressure that may eventually affect end customers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 53.5, suggesting continued growth in the services sector, which is a positive sign.
Commodity and International Outlook
It is important to monitor crude oil inventories, as these provide insight into how producers are planning in anticipation of consumer demand. A larger-than-expected drawdown of crude oil inventories would suggest a more bullish sentiment among producers.
China’s Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to be released soon, with a forecast of 49.1. This figure indicates contraction in China’s manufacturing sector and is a cause for concern.
Labor Market Indicators
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for February is forecasted at 49,000, a significant increase from the previous report of 22,000. This is considered bullish news, barring any revisions to the data. Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 215,000, an important metric for the Federal Reserve’s decision-making regarding interest rates in the American economy.
Non-farm payrolls for February will be released with a forecast of 58,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month. These are crucial data points for the Federal Reserve and may cause market volatility if the actual figures differ from the forecasts. Average hourly earnings are forecasted to grow 0.3% month-on-month for February, indicating continued wage growth. Whether this growth is sufficient to outpace inflation remains to be seen and will require ongoing monitoring.
Consumer and Retail Data
Retail sales month-on-month for January are forecasted at -0.3%, suggesting a seasonal decline likely due to the aftermath of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Leaders also pay attention to core retail sales month-on-month for January, which is forecasted at 0%, indicating no growth. While this may seem average, it is noteworthy that core retail sales are not experiencing contraction.
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