To The Moon

The market narrative for February was completely rewritten in its final hours by geopolitical turbulence. Moving from early-month AI mania to a late-month "safe-haven" mode. 📉 Index Performance: A "Late-Winter Chill" for Tech $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -3.38% – The epicentrer of the sell-off; late-month "panic selling" amplified the decline. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.87% – This marks the largest monthly drop in nearly a year. (Context: The last major crash was in March of last year at -5.75%. Will history repeat itself this March?) $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : +0.17% – Bucking the trend, the Dow showed extraordinary resilience thanks to energy and traditional industrial sectors. I

News and my thoughts from the past week (02Mar2026) China now generates 40% more electricity than the US and EU combined. Electricity output is the single best proxy for industrial capacity - Elon Musk Israeli media says that after Khamenei, our next target is Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey). - X user Globe Observer South Korea’s stock market is a $40 billion leverage bomb waiting to go off. The KOSPI is up 177% in the last year. A 177% domestic rally relying almost entirely on semiconductors. $40B parked in highly leveraged U.S. tech ETFs. Volatility rising right alongside market highs. - X user Bull Theory “AI does not reduce work. It intensifies it.“ Powerful new Harvard Business Review study. - X user Rohan Paul The Pentagon just blacklisted one of America’s most valuable AI companie

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026) Global and U.S. PMI Data The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February is forecasted at 51.2, signalling expansion and growth in global manufacturing sectors. This positive indicator suggests favourable conditions for the overall market. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI forecast stands at 52.3, reflecting growth in the global services sector and providing a constructive outlook for the global economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to reach 51.7, indicating expansion and growth within the manufacturing sector. However, the ISM Manufacturing Prices forecast is 60.6, which points to inflationary pressures as manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Pric

(1) & (3): instead of hoarding gold and oil as hedges (as I'm not familiar with these), I had sold 1/3 of a position which had tripled in value over the cost price. (2) After consecutive blockbuster earnings, the "market" has set unrealistic expectations for Nvidia, this is not the first time and long term investors are already expecting this to happen.

In the face of the Iran crisis, did your portfolio have enough Gold or Oil as a "parachute"?: unfortunately no. And that is sad indeed as I was planning to enter but waiting for a decent correction first. 2. Did you protect your profits in February? Will gold break $5,500 in March? Will crash history repeat itself in March: did book and protect some profit in Feb but not all of it. And gold could perhaps well touch $5500 provided the present situation lasts longer & doesn't end in a few weeks. 

Gold and oil will be stars of the month of March. Oil price should be up by 10%.

no crash

the attack yesterday, reiterate defensive stock, e.g. gold, oil, energy & of course, defense related stock. $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ and ETF like $iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF(ITA)$ $SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF(XAR)$

February flipped the script on markets like a thriller plot twist – from AI hype to full-blown safe-haven scramble amid escalating Iran tensions. Tech-heavy indexes took a hit as investors fled to gold and oil for cover. Nasdaq plunged 3.38%, S&P 500 dipped 0.87%, while Dow eked out a slim 0.17% gain. But the real stars? Gold rocketed nearly 11% to hover around $5,296, and oil spiked to $72+ per barrel on fears of supply chaos. 😲 Did your portfolio pack that golden parachute? If not, you're not alone – many got caught in the crossfire of geopolitical jitters. Tensions boiled over with U.S.-Iran nuclear talks collapsing in Geneva, sparking military buildups and missile threats. Oil producers in the Gulf went on high alert, and whispers of strikes lit a fire under energy prices. Gold, th

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -3.38% – The epicentrer of the sell-off; late-month "panic selling" amplified the decline. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.87% – This marks the largest monthly drop in nearly a year. (Context: The last major crash was in March of last year at -5.75%. Will history repeat itself this March?) $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : +0.17% – Bucking the trend, the Dow showed extraordinary resilience thanks to energy and traditional industrial sectors.

The market narrative for February was completely rewritten in its final hours by geopolitical turbulence. Moving from early-month AI mania to a late-month "safe-haven" mode.

👍

I did not buy gold or oil as I think commodities are quite speculative to me. I prefer to invest direct in stocks or ETFs. I think the market sentiment has been one where there has been great fears of a market crash since the upward march 2 years ago. Nonetheless, the market continues to climb last year, leaving many to regret that they gave in to their fears and were out of the market. What happened to Nvidia is not unique to it, I do think it will happen to any of the stocks related to the AI frenzy. However, if we look at the longer term, I think the stock prices will still climb in the next 2-3 years so there is no need to panic. It’s is just market sentiment and profit taking. Overall market valuation is similar to historical values but I have chosen to manage my risk by taking profit

1. Black swan preparedness: unfortunately I don't have both $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ and oil in my portfolio. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ lesson: yes. Was observing and stilled away when Meta starts to announce their supply chain partners. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 3. Did I protect my profits in February: I stayed away to monitor the situation. I have little exposure and have little to protect. Yes, I think gold is likely to exceed $5500 in march.

1️⃣ Black Swan Preparedness February proved why portfolios need hedges. Gold protects against policy and currency risk, while oil hedges geopolitical supply shocks. Even a modest allocation acts as a stabiliser when growth assets suddenly reprice. 2️⃣ The Nvidia Lesson NVDA’s “good news drop” showed expectation gaps matter more than results. In crowded AI trades, markets price perfection early. When expectations peak, strong earnings can still trigger profit-taking. Discipline beats hype during momentum phases. 3️⃣ Profit Protection & Gold Outlook Locking partial gains in February was prudent as markets shifted into risk-off mode. Gold’s trend remains structurally bullish due to central-bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. Will gold break $5,500 in March? Possible if conflict es

February showed a classic late-cycle rotation: crowded AI momentum met an external shock, and capital moved toward protection rather than growth. The divergence tells the story clearly. Nasdaq weakness reflects duration risk, while the Dow’s resilience signals rotation into cash-flow and defensive assets. Was gold or oil the right “parachute”? Yes, but for different reasons: Gold protects against policy uncertainty and falling real yields. It hedges portfolio valuation risk. Oil hedges supply disruption and inflation shocks. It protects against macro shock risk. A balanced hedge typically requires both, because wars transmit first through energy, then into monetary expectations where gold benefits most. Did February require profit protection? In hindsight, yes. When narratives shift from g

Have a base amount of gold or equivalent stock for emergency. But am keeping a good amount of cash in preparation of a black swan event to shop and scoop up any good discounted stocks for long term investment.

End February black swan event with gold & oil soar and panic selling. May be March crash repeat presents trade opportunities again.

War start and Gold will rocket 🚀 high again 

Buy Gold Buy Oil. Sold SIA due to scoot and SQ unable to fly.

no won't crash

News and my thoughts from the past week (02Mar2026) China now generates 40% more electricity than the US and EU combined. Electricity output is the single best proxy for industrial capacity - Elon Musk Israeli media says that after Khamenei, our next target is Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey). - X user Globe Observer South Korea’s stock market is a $40 billion leverage bomb waiting to go off. The KOSPI is up 177% in the last year. A 177% domestic rally relying almost entirely on semiconductors. $40B parked in highly leveraged U.S. tech ETFs. Volatility rising right alongside market highs. - X user Bull Theory “AI does not reduce work. It intensifies it.“ Powerful new Harvard Business Review study. - X user Rohan Paul The Pentagon just blacklisted one of America’s most valuable AI companie

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026) Global and U.S. PMI Data The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February is forecasted at 51.2, signalling expansion and growth in global manufacturing sectors. This positive indicator suggests favourable conditions for the overall market. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI forecast stands at 52.3, reflecting growth in the global services sector and providing a constructive outlook for the global economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to reach 51.7, indicating expansion and growth within the manufacturing sector. However, the ISM Manufacturing Prices forecast is 60.6, which points to inflationary pressures as manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Pric

February flipped the script on markets like a thriller plot twist – from AI hype to full-blown safe-haven scramble amid escalating Iran tensions. Tech-heavy indexes took a hit as investors fled to gold and oil for cover. Nasdaq plunged 3.38%, S&P 500 dipped 0.87%, while Dow eked out a slim 0.17% gain. But the real stars? Gold rocketed nearly 11% to hover around $5,296, and oil spiked to $72+ per barrel on fears of supply chaos. 😲 Did your portfolio pack that golden parachute? If not, you're not alone – many got caught in the crossfire of geopolitical jitters. Tensions boiled over with U.S.-Iran nuclear talks collapsing in Geneva, sparking military buildups and missile threats. Oil producers in the Gulf went on high alert, and whispers of strikes lit a fire under energy prices. Gold, th

(1) & (3): instead of hoarding gold and oil as hedges (as I'm not familiar with these), I had sold 1/3 of a position which had tripled in value over the cost price. (2) After consecutive blockbuster earnings, the "market" has set unrealistic expectations for Nvidia, this is not the first time and long term investors are already expecting this to happen.

In the face of the Iran crisis, did your portfolio have enough Gold or Oil as a "parachute"?: unfortunately no. And that is sad indeed as I was planning to enter but waiting for a decent correction first. 2. Did you protect your profits in February? Will gold break $5,500 in March? Will crash history repeat itself in March: did book and protect some profit in Feb but not all of it. And gold could perhaps well touch $5500 provided the present situation lasts longer & doesn't end in a few weeks. 

Gold and oil will be stars of the month of March. Oil price should be up by 10%.

The market narrative for February was completely rewritten in its final hours by geopolitical turbulence. Moving from early-month AI mania to a late-month "safe-haven" mode. 📉 Index Performance: A "Late-Winter Chill" for Tech $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -3.38% – The epicentrer of the sell-off; late-month "panic selling" amplified the decline. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.87% – This marks the largest monthly drop in nearly a year. (Context: The last major crash was in March of last year at -5.75%. Will history repeat itself this March?) $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : +0.17% – Bucking the trend, the Dow showed extraordinary resilience thanks to energy and traditional industrial sectors. I

February showed a classic late-cycle rotation: crowded AI momentum met an external shock, and capital moved toward protection rather than growth. The divergence tells the story clearly. Nasdaq weakness reflects duration risk, while the Dow’s resilience signals rotation into cash-flow and defensive assets. Was gold or oil the right “parachute”? Yes, but for different reasons: Gold protects against policy uncertainty and falling real yields. It hedges portfolio valuation risk. Oil hedges supply disruption and inflation shocks. It protects against macro shock risk. A balanced hedge typically requires both, because wars transmit first through energy, then into monetary expectations where gold benefits most. Did February require profit protection? In hindsight, yes. When narratives shift from g

the attack yesterday, reiterate defensive stock, e.g. gold, oil, energy & of course, defense related stock. $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ and ETF like $iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF(ITA)$ $SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF(XAR)$

no crash

I did not buy gold or oil as I think commodities are quite speculative to me. I prefer to invest direct in stocks or ETFs. I think the market sentiment has been one where there has been great fears of a market crash since the upward march 2 years ago. Nonetheless, the market continues to climb last year, leaving many to regret that they gave in to their fears and were out of the market. What happened to Nvidia is not unique to it, I do think it will happen to any of the stocks related to the AI frenzy. However, if we look at the longer term, I think the stock prices will still climb in the next 2-3 years so there is no need to panic. It’s is just market sentiment and profit taking. Overall market valuation is similar to historical values but I have chosen to manage my risk by taking profit

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -3.38% – The epicentrer of the sell-off; late-month "panic selling" amplified the decline. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.87% – This marks the largest monthly drop in nearly a year. (Context: The last major crash was in March of last year at -5.75%. Will history repeat itself this March?) $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : +0.17% – Bucking the trend, the Dow showed extraordinary resilience thanks to energy and traditional industrial sectors.

1️⃣ Black Swan Preparedness February proved why portfolios need hedges. Gold protects against policy and currency risk, while oil hedges geopolitical supply shocks. Even a modest allocation acts as a stabiliser when growth assets suddenly reprice. 2️⃣ The Nvidia Lesson NVDA’s “good news drop” showed expectation gaps matter more than results. In crowded AI trades, markets price perfection early. When expectations peak, strong earnings can still trigger profit-taking. Discipline beats hype during momentum phases. 3️⃣ Profit Protection & Gold Outlook Locking partial gains in February was prudent as markets shifted into risk-off mode. Gold’s trend remains structurally bullish due to central-bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. Will gold break $5,500 in March? Possible if conflict es

The market narrative for February was completely rewritten in its final hours by geopolitical turbulence. Moving from early-month AI mania to a late-month "safe-haven" mode.

1. Black swan preparedness: unfortunately I don't have both $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ and oil in my portfolio. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ lesson: yes. Was observing and stilled away when Meta starts to announce their supply chain partners. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 3. Did I protect my profits in February: I stayed away to monitor the situation. I have little exposure and have little to protect. Yes, I think gold is likely to exceed $5500 in march.

👍

Have a base amount of gold or equivalent stock for emergency. But am keeping a good amount of cash in preparation of a black swan event to shop and scoop up any good discounted stocks for long term investment.

End February black swan event with gold & oil soar and panic selling. May be March crash repeat presents trade opportunities again.

🌟🌟🌟Coined by Nassim Taleb, a Black Swan is an event that is unpredictable, carries a massive impact and is often explained with hindsight bias after it happens.  The sudden high intensity strikes on Iran on February 28 by US and Israel is certainly a Black Swan event. The lesson to be learnt is to build a portfolio that survives as it is impossible to predict a Black Swan event. That is why I have invested in $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ which is  my ultimate safe haven, backed by physical gold bullion held in secure vaults.  IAU is the 2nd highest Gold ETF in market cap after $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ .  However IAU has a lower expense ratio of 0.25% compared to GLD'S 0.40%.  It also ha

1. Black Swan Preparedness: In the face of the Iran crisis, did your portfolio have enough Gold or Oil as a "parachute"? No, not at all. Holding bitcoin instead of gold, and don't hold oil in hope and support of cleaner energy 2. The Nvidia Lesson: Did the "drop on good news" teach you to stay vigilant about "expectation gaps" during a market frenzy? Always looking at key fundamentals and determining how far the priced in "future tax" is 3. Did you protect your profits in February? In it for the long run so no specific strategy in particular but to diversify into defensive stocks as well 4. Do you think Gold will break $5,500 in March? Most likely break 5500 amidst fear, but I think Gold will have another big correction at some point this year, perhaps to low 4000s.