To The Moon

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

• U.S. layoffs are now at numbers worse than the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. - X user The Patriotic Blonde

• South Korean battery maker SK On lays off 958 US employees - Reuters

• 92,000 people just lost their jobs in one month in The US. Just a regular Tuesday in 2026. And Anthropic released a report this morning saying the jobs AI can't kill are plumbers, farmers, and electricians. Your office job is not safe. The economy is confirming what AI companies already told you. The guy who learned to fix pipes in 6 months has more job security than you. - X user Tuki

• Morgan Stanley laying off 2,500 employees across all divisions amid economic challenges - MacroEdge

• Amazon cuts jobs in robotics division - MacroEdge

• Kuehne+Nagel to layoff 2,000 workers amid weak demand, AI push - MacroEdge

• Goldman Sachs: "Over the long term, our baseline estimate is that 6-7% of workers (equivalent to 11 million jobs) will be displaced by AI automation."

Layoffs continued into the week, and there are more expected in the coming week. It can be a difficult season for those affected.

Gulf War

White House official Jarrod Agen finally admitted the true reason for this war: “Get all of the oil out of the hands of ‘terrorists’.” Finally, the White House is saying the truth. Pisses me off when they blame Iran’s nuclear ambitions or call Iran a threat to the U.S. - X user Mario Nawfal

Data centres are easy targets in the Gulf. What about undersea fibre optics cables? Welcome to digital darkness, soon?

Does America have the supply chain, manufacturing capacity, oil reserves and creditability to survive this? Set up the Board of Peace only to go to war in 7 days? Inflation hits the whole world and there should be more challenges - fresh food for Middle East, Tourism, data centres, underwater fibre cables, supply chain delays, disruptions, maintenance, repairs and more issues ... ... Will we experience digital darkness soon? Will the world experience more terrorist attacks? Can America be trusted with global leadership?

3 of the 4 big Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar) are discussing withdrawing from US & other investments as the toll from the war with Iran mounts, per FT.

Trump says that America will go to war with Cuba next, after the war in Iran is “finished.” Trump is addicted to regime change.

Gulf countries may run out of fresh food stocks in days. The war with Iran is choking supply chains: 18% of global air cargo is already grounded, and sea routes are crumbling fast. Many gulf countries import almost everything, and fresh fruits, vegetables, and other perishables could be the first to vanish. Time is running out. Source: Newsdesk Heute

QatarEnergy declares Force Majeure. Further to the announcement by QatarEnergy to stop production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products, QatarEnergy has declared Force Majeure to its affected buyers. QatarEnergy values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information. - QatarEnergy

The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States - Bloomberg

This is always a war of the supply chain. It is also about affordability and sustainability. Can the US hit hard, fast and accurately? Yes. Can the US fight a prolonged war? ... Not an infinite war.

An Iranian drone just hit an Amazon data centre in the UAE. AWS had to emergency shut down power to prevent the fire from spreading. Cloud outages across the region. Iran is now hitting the internet itself. - Clash Report

My Final Thoughts

The bigger issue is not the tariffs refund even though it will be an administrative nightmare and the lawsuits would be significant. Costing will need to be reviewed and will the retail prices be adjusted back to pre tariffs days? What is most costly is the loss of reliability of American policies.

Private Credit Market Stress

Recently, the private credit divisions of BlackRock and Blackstone have exerted considerable stress on the market. This is primarily due to their inability to honour certain investor withdrawal requests. As the market opens, it will be important to observe how this situation unfolds. There is a possibility that other companies offering private credit may also be facing similar challenges. However, it remains unclear whether these issues stem from short-term liquidity constraints or reflect deeper concerns about the quality of funds being offered in the private credit sector.

Portfolio Risk Management Amid Economic Uncertainty

With the addition of the latest job numbers and the anticipation of further retrenchments, it is crucial to consider hedging strategies within investment portfolios to effectively manage risk. The ASEAN region, projected to become the fourth-largest trading bloc globally by 2030, presents new opportunities for diversification. Singapore, in particular, stands out as a recommended destination for exploring these opportunities.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Implications

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East highlights the need for supply chain strategies that align with defence complex production capacities and resource availability. Iran’s tactic of deploying older weapons in initial rounds has depleted a substantial portion of missile defence systems. As a result, subsequent bomb attacks may encounter reduced resistance, affecting not only Israel but also other Gulf states.

Investment Shifts Driven by Regional Instability

Cities like Dubai have historically attracted investors with their tax-free climate. However, diminished safety has made it challenging to retain these investors, prompting urgent relocation inquiries. Asian cities, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, are expected to benefit from this trend as some investors seek safer alternatives.

Anticipated Market Volatility and Strategic Responses

The upcoming release of inflation figures is expected to contribute to market volatility in the week ahead. The market’s response will depend on whether optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts can outweigh ongoing concerns related to economic data and the Middle East conflict. It is essential to maintain a disciplined approach by implementing strategies for taking profits and limiting losses.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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