To The Moon

😀Hi Tigers,

SpaceX has quietly become the most anticipated potential IPO in global markets.

With a private valuation around $350 billion, it is already the largest private company in the world. Demand for its shares is so strong that investors are buying into private-market SPVs, and some deals have reportedly cleared 30%+ above previous tender prices.

If SpaceX eventually goes public, it could easily become one of the largest IPOs in market history.

I. Private market demand

Because SpaceX is still private, most investors cannot buy shares directly.

Instead, access usually happens through secondary transactions or SPV structures that pool capital to buy shares from early employees and investors.

What we are seeing in the private market:

• Secondary transactions remain heavily oversubscribed • Limited supply of shares pushes prices higher • Some SPV deals have traded 30%+ above recent tender valuations

In other words, investor demand is already running ahead of supply, even before a public listing.

II. The Triple Threat: Starship, Starlink, and Defense

The SpaceX bull case rests on three distinct growth and revenue engines:

• Starship (Future Growth): This next-gen reusable rocket disrupts space economics by slashing launch costs. Success here unlocks massive new markets—from lunar infrastructure to in-orbit manufacturing—while widening the company’s competitive moat.

• Starlink (The Cash-Flow Machine): Already profitable and generating ~50% of total revenue, Starlink is the powerhouse of today. Its expansion into maritime, aviation, and military sectors has transformed it into a massive, recurring revenue stream with aggressive global growth.

• Government & Defense (The Anchor): U.S. government contracts provide roughly 40% of revenue. These long-term, high-visibility agreements offer a level of predictability rarely seen in private growth companies, perfectly balancing Starlink’s consumer-driven income.

IV. Investment logic

So why are investors so eager to get exposure to SpaceX, even before an IPO?

Several structural factors help explain the excitement.

1. Starship commercialization could unlock new markets

Starship is designed to be fully reusable, which could dramatically reduce the cost of sending payloads into orbit.

If launch costs fall enough, entirely new industries could emerge:

• Space manufacturing

• Large-scale satellite constellations

• Lunar infrastructure

In other words, Starship could expand the total space economy, not just compete within it.

2. Starlink has already become a profitable business

Unlike many futuristic space projects, Starlink is already producing meaningful revenue.

Key highlights:

• Global satellite internet network

• Profitable according to multiple reports

• Strong growth in enterprise and government usage

For investors, this means SpaceX is not just a “future story” — one of its core businesses is already monetizing at scale.

3. A SpaceX IPO could become one of the largest in history

Media reports suggest a potential IPO could raise $30–50 billion.

If that happens, it could rival or even surpass Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

A listing of that scale would instantly create one of the largest publicly traded aerospace and technology companies in the world.

That alone explains why the market is watching SpaceX so closely.

V. Key risks

SPV Complexity

As a private company, SpaceX exposure often requires using SPVs. These structures frequently involve management fees, complex profit-sharing, and limited transparency. Retail-focused products also carry higher mis-selling or fraud risks.

Crucial: Always verify legal structures, underlying ownership, and liquidity terms before investing.

Timing Uncertainty

Despite the hype, no official IPO timeline exists. SpaceX could still pivot to a Starlink-only spinoff or continue relying on private secondary sales. Any strategy shift will directly impact when—or if—investors get liquidity.

VI. In short

Why investors are excited:

• Starship commercialization could expand the space economy

• Starlink has already turned profitable

• A SpaceX IPO could become one of the largest listings ever

Key risks to consider:

• SPV investment structures can be complex and sometimes opaque

• Some products marketed to retail investors may carry fraud risks

• IPO timing remains uncertain