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UBS is right on Gold's immense potential to appreciate further this year!

UBS Bullish on Gold: Dollar Pressure Temporary, Remains "Safe Haven King," New Highs Expected This Year

Despite growing skepticism about gold's safe-haven status, UBS believes that its current period of underperformance could mark the starting point for the next rally to new highs. According to the...

UBS Bullish on Gold: Dollar Pressure Temporary, Remains "Safe Haven King," New Highs Expected This Year

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According to the...","content":"<p>Despite growing skepticism about gold's safe-haven status, UBS believes that its current period of underperformance could mark the starting point for the next rally to new highs.\nAccording to the bank's global precious metals review report released on March 17 by strategist Joni Teves, the core factors supporting the gold bull market remain intact. The trend of investors continuously increasing their allocations has not reversed, and gold is expected to set new record highs this year.\nThe report suggests that the current pressure on gold prices from high real interest rates and a strong US dollar represents short-term noise. Any price pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities for investors to build positions.\nThis stance comes amid market doubts about gold's safe-haven qualities. Since the start of the year, gold price volatility has surged sharply, yet its performance during periods of heightened geopolitical risk has been lackluster. This counter-intuitive price action has led some market participants to worry about gold's long-term trend. UBS argues these concerns are overblown and that gold's function as a portfolio diversification tool remains undamaged.</p>\n<p>**Gold's \"Failure\"? A Case of Short-Term Macro Variables Dominating**\nA major recent market puzzle has been why rising geopolitical risks have not led to sustained gains in gold prices.\nUBS points out that this \"failure\" is more a result of a short-term shift in pricing logic.\nOn one hand, rising real rates and a strengthening US dollar create a dual headwind. Higher real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while dollar appreciation directly weighs on the dollar-denominated gold price.\nOn the other hand, the market is currently focused more on the narrative chain of \"rising oil prices → elevated inflation → Fed maintaining tight policy,\" rather than the path of \"oil price shock → economic slowdown → policy pivot.\" This singular narrative has temporarily weakened gold's macro hedging properties.\nIn other words, gold has not become ineffective; it is merely being temporarily suppressed by stronger macro variables.</p>\n<p>**Safe-Haven Logic Intact, But Its Mode of Action Has Changed**\nThe report emphasizes a common market misconception about gold: viewing it as an \"immediate reaction asset\" to geopolitical conflicts.\nHistorical experience shows that gold's reaction to geopolitics is often non-linear:\n- Short-term conflict escalation can indeed trigger rapid price increases.\n- However, such rallies are typically difficult to sustain and often see prices retrace gains.\n- The real impact lies in conflicts reinforcing investors' long-term willingness to allocate to gold.\nTherefore, the significance of geopolitical risk for gold lies not in triggering a tactical trading rally, but in boosting its strategic weight within global asset allocations.</p>\n<p>**Impact of Oil Price Paths Under Three Scenarios on Gold**\nBased on different assumptions about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, analysts constructed three scenario frameworks.\nIn the most optimistic scenario, where tensions de-escalate quickly, the impact on oil prices would be relatively limited. A medium supply disruption of around 1 million barrels per day would exert more substantial upward pressure on the market. In the most pessimistic scenario—where supply disruptions persist for an extended period—Brent crude could rise to around $120 per barrel within the month and potentially break above $150 in the second quarter.\nThe normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will be the core variable determining price trends and is the most closely watched risk node for the market currently.\nFor gold, UBS believes the near-term reaction could be complex—if real rates and the dollar continue to strengthen, gold prices could fall further.\nHowever, UBS views any pullback as an opportunity for investors to build long-term gold allocations. The persistence of geopolitical tensions will ultimately support strategic demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier. Furthermore, if an economic growth slowdown prompts fiscal and/or monetary stimulus measures, it would create upside risks for gold.</p>\n<p>**Core Driver of This Gold Bull Market: Portfolio Re-allocation**\nUBS argues that unlike previous gold cycles driven by inflation or dollar cycles, the core driver of the current rally is the ongoing increase in gold's allocation weight within global investment portfolios.\nThis trend is underpinned by deeper macro changes:\n- The long-term persistence of global uncertainties (geopolitical, policy, growth).\n- Declining hedging efficiency of traditional stock-bond portfolios.\n- Rising investor demand for \"real assets.\"\nWithin this framework, gold is no longer just a hedging tool but is gradually becoming part of strategic asset allocation.\nUBS also notes that persistently high price volatility could challenge diversification inflows if maintained long-term. However, gold volatility has already retreated from its highs and is normalizing relative to the VIX index. The report suggests the current consolidation phase helps build solid support at higher price levels, creating a favorable starting point for market participants to re-enter and accumulate positions ahead of the next leg higher.</p>\n<p>**Key Inflection Point: Growth Pressures and Policy Response**\nDespite short-term pressure, UBS believes the medium to long-term case for higher gold prices remains clear, hinging on two core variables:\n1. Potential weakening on the growth front: High oil prices and tight monetary conditions may gradually erode global economic growth momentum.\n2. A被动 policy pivot: Should growth slow noticeably, fiscal and monetary policies could shift towards easing.\nThis combination—falling real rates + improving liquidity—would reopen the path for gold's ascent.\nIt is precisely based on this logic that UBS maintains its judgment: gold prices are still likely to reach new highs within the year.</p>\n<p>**Silver Follows Gold; Platinum Group Metals Supported by Tight Supply**\nRegarding other precious metals, UBS's overall assessment remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium are all in a consolidation phase with price pressure. However, considering the potential drag on industrial demand from a global growth slowdown, the performance of these more industrially-oriented white metals has been relatively resilient.\nFor silver, UBS expects its positive correlation with gold to persist, and it too could set new record highs this year. The report cautions, however, that if rising oil prices hamper global growth, pressured industrial demand would constrain silver's potential for outperformance relative to gold.\nFor platinum and palladium, UBS believes prices will find support as long as signals of tight market supply persist. Bloomberg data shows both metals are in a state of backwardation across their forward curves, particularly pronounced at the long end, indicating ongoing market concerns about near-term supply availability.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS Bullish on Gold: Dollar Pressure Temporary, Remains \"Safe Haven King,\" New Highs Expected This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS Bullish on Gold: Dollar Pressure Temporary, Remains \"Safe Haven King,\" New Highs Expected This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039043262\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Deep News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-18 11:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite growing skepticism about gold's safe-haven status, UBS believes that its current period of underperformance could mark the starting point for the next rally to new highs.\nAccording to the bank's global precious metals review report released on March 17 by strategist Joni Teves, the core factors supporting the gold bull market remain intact. The trend of investors continuously increasing their allocations has not reversed, and gold is expected to set new record highs this year.\nThe report suggests that the current pressure on gold prices from high real interest rates and a strong US dollar represents short-term noise. Any price pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities for investors to build positions.\nThis stance comes amid market doubts about gold's safe-haven qualities. Since the start of the year, gold price volatility has surged sharply, yet its performance during periods of heightened geopolitical risk has been lackluster. This counter-intuitive price action has led some market participants to worry about gold's long-term trend. UBS argues these concerns are overblown and that gold's function as a portfolio diversification tool remains undamaged.</p>\n<p>**Gold's \"Failure\"? A Case of Short-Term Macro Variables Dominating**\nA major recent market puzzle has been why rising geopolitical risks have not led to sustained gains in gold prices.\nUBS points out that this \"failure\" is more a result of a short-term shift in pricing logic.\nOn one hand, rising real rates and a strengthening US dollar create a dual headwind. Higher real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while dollar appreciation directly weighs on the dollar-denominated gold price.\nOn the other hand, the market is currently focused more on the narrative chain of \"rising oil prices → elevated inflation → Fed maintaining tight policy,\" rather than the path of \"oil price shock → economic slowdown → policy pivot.\" This singular narrative has temporarily weakened gold's macro hedging properties.\nIn other words, gold has not become ineffective; it is merely being temporarily suppressed by stronger macro variables.</p>\n<p>**Safe-Haven Logic Intact, But Its Mode of Action Has Changed**\nThe report emphasizes a common market misconception about gold: viewing it as an \"immediate reaction asset\" to geopolitical conflicts.\nHistorical experience shows that gold's reaction to geopolitics is often non-linear:\n- Short-term conflict escalation can indeed trigger rapid price increases.\n- However, such rallies are typically difficult to sustain and often see prices retrace gains.\n- The real impact lies in conflicts reinforcing investors' long-term willingness to allocate to gold.\nTherefore, the significance of geopolitical risk for gold lies not in triggering a tactical trading rally, but in boosting its strategic weight within global asset allocations.</p>\n<p>**Impact of Oil Price Paths Under Three Scenarios on Gold**\nBased on different assumptions about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, analysts constructed three scenario frameworks.\nIn the most optimistic scenario, where tensions de-escalate quickly, the impact on oil prices would be relatively limited. A medium supply disruption of around 1 million barrels per day would exert more substantial upward pressure on the market. In the most pessimistic scenario—where supply disruptions persist for an extended period—Brent crude could rise to around $120 per barrel within the month and potentially break above $150 in the second quarter.\nThe normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will be the core variable determining price trends and is the most closely watched risk node for the market currently.\nFor gold, UBS believes the near-term reaction could be complex—if real rates and the dollar continue to strengthen, gold prices could fall further.\nHowever, UBS views any pullback as an opportunity for investors to build long-term gold allocations. The persistence of geopolitical tensions will ultimately support strategic demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier. Furthermore, if an economic growth slowdown prompts fiscal and/or monetary stimulus measures, it would create upside risks for gold.</p>\n<p>**Core Driver of This Gold Bull Market: Portfolio Re-allocation**\nUBS argues that unlike previous gold cycles driven by inflation or dollar cycles, the core driver of the current rally is the ongoing increase in gold's allocation weight within global investment portfolios.\nThis trend is underpinned by deeper macro changes:\n- The long-term persistence of global uncertainties (geopolitical, policy, growth).\n- Declining hedging efficiency of traditional stock-bond portfolios.\n- Rising investor demand for \"real assets.\"\nWithin this framework, gold is no longer just a hedging tool but is gradually becoming part of strategic asset allocation.\nUBS also notes that persistently high price volatility could challenge diversification inflows if maintained long-term. However, gold volatility has already retreated from its highs and is normalizing relative to the VIX index. The report suggests the current consolidation phase helps build solid support at higher price levels, creating a favorable starting point for market participants to re-enter and accumulate positions ahead of the next leg higher.</p>\n<p>**Key Inflection Point: Growth Pressures and Policy Response**\nDespite short-term pressure, UBS believes the medium to long-term case for higher gold prices remains clear, hinging on two core variables:\n1. Potential weakening on the growth front: High oil prices and tight monetary conditions may gradually erode global economic growth momentum.\n2. A被动 policy pivot: Should growth slow noticeably, fiscal and monetary policies could shift towards easing.\nThis combination—falling real rates + improving liquidity—would reopen the path for gold's ascent.\nIt is precisely based on this logic that UBS maintains its judgment: gold prices are still likely to reach new highs within the year.</p>\n<p>**Silver Follows Gold; Platinum Group Metals Supported by Tight Supply**\nRegarding other precious metals, UBS's overall assessment remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium are all in a consolidation phase with price pressure. However, considering the potential drag on industrial demand from a global growth slowdown, the performance of these more industrially-oriented white metals has been relatively resilient.\nFor silver, UBS expects its positive correlation with gold to persist, and it too could set new record highs this year. The report cautions, however, that if rising oil prices hamper global growth, pressured industrial demand would constrain silver's potential for outperformance relative to gold.\nFor platinum and palladium, UBS believes prices will find support as long as signals of tight market supply persist. Bloomberg data shows both metals are in a state of backwardation across their forward curves, particularly pronounced at the long end, indicating ongoing market concerns about near-term supply availability.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","JNUG":"金矿指数二倍做多ETF","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","BK4207":"综合性银行","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","IAUM":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180305399","content_text":"Despite growing skepticism about gold's safe-haven status, UBS believes that its current period of underperformance could mark the starting point for the next rally to new highs.\nAccording to the bank's global precious metals review report released on March 17 by strategist Joni Teves, the core factors supporting the gold bull market remain intact. The trend of investors continuously increasing their allocations has not reversed, and gold is expected to set new record highs this year.\nThe report suggests that the current pressure on gold prices from high real interest rates and a strong US dollar represents short-term noise. Any price pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities for investors to build positions.\nThis stance comes amid market doubts about gold's safe-haven qualities. Since the start of the year, gold price volatility has surged sharply, yet its performance during periods of heightened geopolitical risk has been lackluster. This counter-intuitive price action has led some market participants to worry about gold's long-term trend. UBS argues these concerns are overblown and that gold's function as a portfolio diversification tool remains undamaged.\n**Gold's \"Failure\"? A Case of Short-Term Macro Variables Dominating**\nA major recent market puzzle has been why rising geopolitical risks have not led to sustained gains in gold prices.\nUBS points out that this \"failure\" is more a result of a short-term shift in pricing logic.\nOn one hand, rising real rates and a strengthening US dollar create a dual headwind. Higher real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while dollar appreciation directly weighs on the dollar-denominated gold price.\nOn the other hand, the market is currently focused more on the narrative chain of \"rising oil prices → elevated inflation → Fed maintaining tight policy,\" rather than the path of \"oil price shock → economic slowdown → policy pivot.\" This singular narrative has temporarily weakened gold's macro hedging properties.\nIn other words, gold has not become ineffective; it is merely being temporarily suppressed by stronger macro variables.\n**Safe-Haven Logic Intact, But Its Mode of Action Has Changed**\nThe report emphasizes a common market misconception about gold: viewing it as an \"immediate reaction asset\" to geopolitical conflicts.\nHistorical experience shows that gold's reaction to geopolitics is often non-linear:\n- Short-term conflict escalation can indeed trigger rapid price increases.\n- However, such rallies are typically difficult to sustain and often see prices retrace gains.\n- The real impact lies in conflicts reinforcing investors' long-term willingness to allocate to gold.\nTherefore, the significance of geopolitical risk for gold lies not in triggering a tactical trading rally, but in boosting its strategic weight within global asset allocations.\n**Impact of Oil Price Paths Under Three Scenarios on Gold**\nBased on different assumptions about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, analysts constructed three scenario frameworks.\nIn the most optimistic scenario, where tensions de-escalate quickly, the impact on oil prices would be relatively limited. A medium supply disruption of around 1 million barrels per day would exert more substantial upward pressure on the market. In the most pessimistic scenario—where supply disruptions persist for an extended period—Brent crude could rise to around $120 per barrel within the month and potentially break above $150 in the second quarter.\nThe normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will be the core variable determining price trends and is the most closely watched risk node for the market currently.\nFor gold, UBS believes the near-term reaction could be complex—if real rates and the dollar continue to strengthen, gold prices could fall further.\nHowever, UBS views any pullback as an opportunity for investors to build long-term gold allocations. The persistence of geopolitical tensions will ultimately support strategic demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier. Furthermore, if an economic growth slowdown prompts fiscal and/or monetary stimulus measures, it would create upside risks for gold.\n**Core Driver of This Gold Bull Market: Portfolio Re-allocation**\nUBS argues that unlike previous gold cycles driven by inflation or dollar cycles, the core driver of the current rally is the ongoing increase in gold's allocation weight within global investment portfolios.\nThis trend is underpinned by deeper macro changes:\n- The long-term persistence of global uncertainties (geopolitical, policy, growth).\n- Declining hedging efficiency of traditional stock-bond portfolios.\n- Rising investor demand for \"real assets.\"\nWithin this framework, gold is no longer just a hedging tool but is gradually becoming part of strategic asset allocation.\nUBS also notes that persistently high price volatility could challenge diversification inflows if maintained long-term. However, gold volatility has already retreated from its highs and is normalizing relative to the VIX index. The report suggests the current consolidation phase helps build solid support at higher price levels, creating a favorable starting point for market participants to re-enter and accumulate positions ahead of the next leg higher.\n**Key Inflection Point: Growth Pressures and Policy Response**\nDespite short-term pressure, UBS believes the medium to long-term case for higher gold prices remains clear, hinging on two core variables:\n1. Potential weakening on the growth front: High oil prices and tight monetary conditions may gradually erode global economic growth momentum.\n2. A被动 policy pivot: Should growth slow noticeably, fiscal and monetary policies could shift towards easing.\nThis combination—falling real rates + improving liquidity—would reopen the path for gold's ascent.\nIt is precisely based on this logic that UBS maintains its judgment: gold prices are still likely to reach new highs within the year.\n**Silver Follows Gold; Platinum Group Metals Supported by Tight Supply**\nRegarding other precious metals, UBS's overall assessment remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium are all in a consolidation phase with price pressure. However, considering the potential drag on industrial demand from a global growth slowdown, the performance of these more industrially-oriented white metals has been relatively resilient.\nFor silver, UBS expects its positive correlation with gold to persist, and it too could set new record highs this year. The report cautions, however, that if rising oil prices hamper global growth, pressured industrial demand would constrain silver's potential for outperformance relative to gold.\nFor platinum and palladium, UBS believes prices will find support as long as signals of tight market supply persist. Bloomberg data shows both metals are in a state of backwardation across their forward curves, particularly pronounced at the long end, indicating ongoing market concerns about near-term supply availability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1,"159934":1,"518880":1,"MGCmain":1,"QOmain":1,"SGOL":1,"PALL":1,"DZZ":1,"GCmain":1,"GDXU":1,"IAU":1,"JNUG":1,"AAAU":1,"DGP":1,"NUGT":1,"SGCmain":1,"IAUM":1,"DUST":1,"GLD":1,"GDXJ":1,"XME":1,"GDXD":1,"GDX":1,"SGUmain":1,"UGL":1,"GLDM":1,"GLL":1,"1OZmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["DZZ","GLL","GDXD","GLDM","1OZmain","AAAU","DGP","IAUM","XME","GDXJ","DUST","SGOL","JNUG","UGL","GDXU","GDX","IAU"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":62,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}