To The Moon

$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Analysis: Gold remains generally biased towards an upward trend. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4577 forms a key support level; short-term support lies around $4633. A decisive break below this level could open the door for a test of $4200.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear increase in selling momentum, potentially indicating further downside for gold.

If gold closes below the 100-day moving average on the daily chart, watch for a test of $4500. A break below this level would target the February 2nd low of $4402, followed by $4200. Further downside would see the 200-day moving average at $4060/oz.

Conversely, if gold holds above $4650, short-term resistance will be seen around $4850, the level converted from the February 17th low. Short-term trading should continue to focus on sell orders.

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Gold prices plunged $168.34, or 3.49%, to settle at $4,650.33 an ounce on Thursday.

Gold prices fell more than 4.5% at one point on Thursday as investors worried about high energy prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, a strong U.S. jobs report prompted traders to rule out a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, instead predicting the first rate cut would occur in 2027.

Gold prices plunged more than 4.5% at one point due to strong U.S. data and concerns about energy-driven inflation pushing up yields.

This week, against the backdrop of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Israel over Iran, major central banks around the world generally adopted a hawkish stance and chose to hold rates steady. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank recently joined the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve in deciding to maintain interest rates. According to Bloomberg, the European Central Bank is even considering raising interest rates.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, citing high inflation and a robust labor market. The vote was 11-1, with Stephen Miran supporting a 25 basis point rate cut.

The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows that policymakers expect the Fed to cut interest rates once each in 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, they project the U.S. economy to grow by 2.4% in 2026, higher than the 2.3% projected in December; core inflation is expected to rise slightly from 2.5% to 2.7%.

The overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is projected to rise from 2.5% to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%.

The latest U.S. jobs report shows that, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14 fell to 205,000 from 213,000, lower than the market expectation of 215,000.

Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising nearly 3 basis points to 4.289%.

Although the SEP is expected to cut rates once this year, according to data from Prime Market Terminal, the money market does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, with the first rate cut expected in the first half of 2027.

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