#SpaceX IPO at $1.75T – Would It Be Worth Buying?
If SpaceX really IPOs at a $1.75 trillion valuation, this would be one of the most important IPOs in history. But the key question is not excitement. It is valuation vs reality.
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First: What is SpaceX actually worth?
SpaceX is not one business. It is three:
1. Launch business (Falcon 9, Starship)
2. Starlink satellite internet
3. Military / NASA / government contracts
The most important part is Starlink, not rockets.
Many analysts estimate:
Starlink alone could be worth $500B – $900B
Launch business maybe $150B – $200B
Defence / space infrastructure optional upside
So a $1.75T valuation means the market is pricing SpaceX like the next global infrastructure giant, not just a space company.
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The Bull Case (Why investors would buy)
The bull thesis is actually very strong:
SpaceX could become:
Global satellite internet provider
Space logistics company
Moon/Mars transport contractor
Military space infrastructure provider
Global communication backbone
Satellite-to-phone network
Launch monopoly via Starship
Possibly space mining/logistics long term
If Starlink becomes global internet infrastructure, SpaceX is closer to:
Not Tesla
Not Meta
More like a combination of AWS + telecom + defence contractor + logistics
That is why some people think it could be a multi-trillion company.
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The Bear Case (Why valuation may be too high)
At $1.75T, expectations are extremely high.
Risks:
Starlink competition (Amazon Kuiper, China satellites)
Starship delays or failures
Government regulation
Telecom partnerships vs telecom hostility
Massive capital expenditure
Profitability still unclear vs valuation
IPO hype premium
This would likely be the most hyped IPO in decades.
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If this IPO really happens, historically IPOs like this behave in 3 phases:
Very common pattern:
1. IPO hype → price spikes
2. Lock-up expiry → big drop
3. Long-term trend based on fundamentals
Examples:
Meta
Alibaba
Coinbase
Rivian
ARM
So many investors do not buy IPO day.
They wait 3–6 months.
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My honest investment view
If SpaceX IPOs at $1.75T:
Short term: hype, volatile
Medium term: possible big correction
Long term: could actually become one of the most important companies in the world
Personally, the smarter strategy would likely be:
> Not chase IPO day.
Wait for post-IPO dip or lock-up expiry.
Because even great companies can be bad investments if bought at extreme valuations.
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One very important point
If SpaceX IPO happens, it could trigger a new market narrative:
AI Infrastructure → Space Infrastructure → Energy → Robotics → Defence → Satellites
We may be entering a period where the biggest companies are no longer just software companies, but real-world infrastructure giants.
That is why this IPO, if real, would be historically significant.
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