To The Moon

First: Why Micron is crashing

The drop is not due to earnings.

It is due to AI memory demand fears.

Main reasons:

1. Google TurboQuant reduces AI memory usage by ~6×.

2. Fear that AI inference will use less DRAM/HBM.

3. OpenAI scaling plans uncertain.

4. Memory stocks were extremely overbought before this.

TurboQuant “could reduce memory needed for AI models by six times,” which triggered memory stock selloff globally. 

But importantly:

Analysts say selloff may be overdone

AI capex still rising

DRAM prices expected to rise >50% in Q2

Supply still tight into 2027

This is very important:

Memory demand is still strong despite TurboQuant.

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Has the memory thesis fundamentally changed?

Short answer: No, but the narrative changed slightly.

Old thesis

AI → more compute → more memory → HBM shortage → memory supercycle

New thesis

AI → more compute

BUT efficiency improvements reduce memory per model

BUT companies build bigger models anyway

This is called the Jevons Paradox in tech:

> Efficiency increases often increase total demand.

So instead of:

100 models × 10 memory Now:

1000 models × 3 memory

Total memory demand still increases.

Many analysts say AI spending and data centre buildout still drive memory demand long term. 

So thesis changed from: “Memory shortage” → “Memory still strong but less explosive”

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Can Micron hold $320?

This is more technical analysis.

Important levels now:

380 → broke

350 → broke

320 → major support

300 → next support

270 → strong support

240 → bear market support

So $320 is very important psychologically and technically.

If $320 breaks: → Likely fast drop to $300

If $320 holds: → Likely rebound to $350–360

This looks like capitulation volume today (huge volume + big range), which sometimes marks bottom.

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Very important: What is really happening

The market is repricing memory stocks because:

Before Now

AI memory shortage AI memory efficiency

Explosive demand Strong demand

Unlimited pricing Pricing still strong

Supercycle Cyclical supercycle

So memory story not dead, but less perfect.

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My honest market view on Micron now

Very important point:

This feels similar to:

DeepSeek panic

Nvidia China ban panic

Crypto GPU crash panic

Memory cycle crash 2022

Memory stocks always move like this: Up 200% → Down 30% → Up again

Memory is the most cyclical semiconductor sector.

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My personal view (very important part)

I would summarise like this:

Question Answer

Is memory demand collapsing? No

Did thesis weaken? Slightly

Is this panic? Yes

Is MU overvalued before? Yes

Is MU oversold now? Very likely

Can MU hold $320? Key level

Memory cycle over? No

Volatility ahead? Yes

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Final conclusion

Very important conclusion:

The memory thesis has not broken.

But the “AI memory supercycle” narrative has been challenged.

So now the market is repricing from:

> Perfect growth story → cyclical semiconductor story

This is why the stock fell so fast.

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If you want the most important takeaway:

Watch these:

1. AI data centre capex

2. HBM prices

3. DRAM prices

4. Nvidia shipments

5. Cloud capex (Microsoft, Google, Amazon)

6. Micron gross margin

7. Inventory levels

These matter more than TurboQuant headlines.