To The Moon

Chart Watch: Identifying the Next Major Move for CLI in 2026

‌As of March 31, 2026, $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$ is navigating a fascinating "inflection point." While the technicals show a stock testing a major multi-year ceiling, the fundamentals are shifting toward a higher-quality, asset-light model.

‌

1. Technical Analysis (TA)

‌Looking at the provided chart, we see a textbook ascending triangle/wedge formation that has been developing since early 2025.

• Major Resistance ($3.125): This is the "Line in the Sand." The stock has tested this level five times over the last three years (blue circles). It is a heavy supply zone. A convincing breakout above $3.12 with high volume would be a massive bullish signal, likely targeting the $3.50–$3.65 range.

• The Ascending Trendline: Notice the higher lows (bottom blue line). The stock is consistently finding support at increasingly higher levels, currently hovering around $2.72–$2.80.

• Moving Averages: The 20-day (pink) and 50-day (blue) MAs are beginning to cluster. We are seeing a "squeeze." Usually, when the price gets compressed between a rising floor and a flat ceiling, a volatile move is imminent.

• Current Pivot: The price is currently testing the 200-day MA (green line). Holding above $2.70 is crucial to maintain the bullish structure.

‌

2. Fundamental Analysis (FA)

‌

The "Future CLI" strategy is starting to show up in the numbers following the FY2025 results released in February.

• Earnings Quality: Operating PATMI rose 6% YoY to S$539M in 2025. While total PATMI was dragged down by S$439M in revaluation losses (mostly from China), the recurring fee-income business is the real story—it now makes up over 50% of total revenue.

• Asset-Light Transition: Funds Under Management (FUM) grew to S$125B. The goal is S$200B by 2028. Management is aggressively recycling capital, divesting "old" heavy assets and reinvesting into private funds and lodging.

• Lodging Powerhouse: The Ascott brand is a hidden gem. Fee revenue here grew 5% in 2025 with record contract signings, providing a steady cash flow hedge against volatile property valuations.

• Valuation & Yield: * Dividend: Proposed 12.0 cents, giving a yield of approx 4.4% at current prices.

• Target Price: Consensus among major analysts (DBS/POEMS) remains bullish, with TPs ranging from S$3.65 to S$3.69.

$CapLand Ascott T(HMN.SI)$ $CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$

‌

3. Macro Outlook

‌The macro environment in 2026 is a "mixed bag" but generally leaning tailwind for CLI.

• The Interest Rate Pivot: Global rates have stabilized. For a real estate manager, "stable" is better than "low but rising." This allows CLI to price deals with more certainty and lowers the refinancing risk on their S$6.4B debt headroom.

• The "China Drag" vs. India/SEA Growth: China remains a headwind for valuations, but CLI has successfully pivoted. Significant capital is being redeployed into India (Logistics/Data Centers) and Southeast Asia, which are currently the "growth engines" for the APAC region in 2026. $CapLand India T(CY6U.SI)$ $CapLand China T(AU8U.SI)$

• Singapore Safe Haven: As global volatility persists, the Singapore market (STI) is seen as a defensive play. CLI, as a blue-chip constituent, benefits from the institutional "flight to quality."

  ‌

💡 Final Verdict

• ‌Short-term: CLI is in a "wait-and-see" mode. Watch the $3.125 resistance. If it fails to break, we might see a dip back to the $2.60 support level, which would be a prime "Buy on Dip" entry.

• Long-term: The transition to a fee-based model (similar to global giants like Blackstone or Brookfield) should eventually lead to a valuation re-rating. You aren't just buying buildings; you're buying a global fund management platform.

Kenny Loh is a distinguished MAS Private Wealth Advisor (RNF: LKK300389588) representing Financial Alliance with a specialization in holistic investment planning and estate management. He excels in assisting clients to grow their investment capital and establish passive income streams for retirement. Kenny also facilitates tax-efficient portfolio transfers to beneficiaries, ensuring tax-efficient capital appreciation through risk mitigation approaches and optimized wealth transfer through strategic asset structuring.

👉You can join his Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

👉Tag your Tiger Broker account to receive 1 hour complimentary Investment Advice or Portfolio Review, DM kennyloh@fapl.sg on the tagging process.

👉Kenny Loh Services https://kennyloh.net

👉Follow Kenny Loh