GOLD: High-level Consolidation + Weak Rebound
Technical Analysis:$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$
On the H4 chart, the short-term trend shows a rebound and correction structure, with prices gradually rising along short-term moving averages, but lacking strong breakout momentum. The MACD oscillates repeatedly around the zero line, indicating a clear divergence between bulls and bears; the RSI is in the 50-60 range, reflecting a slightly bullish but weak market. If the price fails to effectively break through the $4800 resistance, it may fall back to test the $4500 support. A break below this level could trigger further declines; conversely, a break above key resistance with fundamental support would confirm a trend reversal.
In summary, the current gold technical structure exhibits characteristics of "high-level consolidation + weak rebound," with the trend unchanged but the rebound limited.
Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve stabilized market expectations with dovish statements, preventing a clear tightening of policy and instead fueling expectations of interest rate cuts. This change provides temporary support for gold, but overall, the current market action is still a sentiment correction rather than a trend reversal. The future price movement of gold will continue to revolve around expectations of Federal Reserve policy. If expectations of interest rate cuts continue to strengthen, gold still has upward potential in the medium term; however, in the short term, it will likely continue its oscillating pattern under pressure from key resistance levels, and investors should be wary of the risk of a pullback after a rebound. In the Asian and European markets, short-term support is expected around 4650-60; trading should focus on buy orders in the short term. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
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