To The Moon

👋 Hi, Tigers~

Q1 2026 has officially come to an end.

If you’ve been watching the Singapore market recently, you might have noticed something:

👉 It feels more active than last year

👉 But there’s still no clear bull market

So the question is: What exactly happened in Q1? Which sectors made money? And is Q2 still tradable?

In this post, we’ll break it all down with data + structure + trading logic 👇

📊 1. SGX Outperformed U.S. Markets in Q1: Not a Bull Run, but a Recovery

🧾 Index Performance (YTD)

• $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$

  • Q1 closing level: 4,885.45, up +5.15%

  • Outperformed $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (+2.35%)

  • As of April 1 close, 2026 YTD return: +7.09%

  • vs S&P 500: -4.63%

👉 This highlights the defensive strength and resilience of Singapore equities.

📊 Market Activity (Quarterly View)

Based on Q1 data from $Singapore Exchange Ltd.(SPXCF)$ (SGX):

• Average Daily Securities Value (SDAV):

  • Strong February performance, +45% YoY to S$2.1B (highest since 2020)

• Total Securities Market Turnover:

  • +30% YoY to S$38.5B

• ETF Trading Accelerated:

  • February ETF turnover +172% YoY to S$1.1B

• Derivatives Average Daily Volume:

  • +22% to 1.66M contracts

  • Total volume reached 27.1M contracts (+6% YoY)

📌 Key takeaway:

Liquidity has clearly returned—and this is not just a short-term trend

👉 Quick question: Have you noticed better execution or lower slippage when trading on SGX recently?

🥇 2. So Who Made Money in Q1? (Sector Breakdown)

1️⃣ Banks: The Core Theme (Biggest Winners)

Key names:

• $DBS(D05.SI)$ (YTD +2.31%)

• $UOB(U11.SI)$ (YTD +5.99%)

• $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ (YTD +13.56%)

Q1 drivers:

• Interest rates remained elevated (strong NIM)

• Stable dividends (5%+ yield)

• Capital favored certainty and defensiveness

👉 Performance:

• Banking sector broadly gained +5% to +10% in Q1

📌 Conclusion:

This SGX rally is fundamentally still a “bank-driven market”

2️⃣ S-REITs: Weak Recovery with Clear Divergence

Key names:

• $Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust(SURVF)$ (YTD +4.26%)

• $Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SI)$ (YTD +1.46%)

Q1 performance:

• Overall: Mild rebound (+2% to +5%)

• However:

  • Retail REITs > Office REITs

  • Data center REITs relatively stronger

👉 Core issue:

Financing costs continue to suppress valuations

3️⃣ Industrials / Offshore & Marine: The Dark Horse

Key names:

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YTD +13.79%)

• Sembcorp Industries (YTD +12.46%)

Q1 drivers:

• Recovery in global oil & gas capex

• Shipping and shipbuilding cycle rebound

• Energy transition (renewables + traditional energy)

👉 Performance:

• Most leaders delivered double-digit gains (10%–15%+)

• One of the strongest sectors outside banks

📌 Key takeaway:

The market is expanding from a “bank-only rally” to a broader “financial + cyclical + energy” structure

4️⃣ Tech / Semiconductors: High Beta but Unstable

Key names:

• UMS Integration (YTD +41.73%)

• AEM Holdings (YTD +151.16%)

Characteristics:

• Driven by the AI cycle

• High volatility

👉 Q1 conclusion:

Opportunities exist, but capital flows are not consistent

🧨 3. Key Events in Q1: Opportunities vs Risks

1️⃣ IPO Market: Recovery, but Weak Confidence

Largest IPO:

• UI Boustead Industrial REIT $UIBREIT(UIBU.SI)$

  • Raised ~S$973M

  • First-day performance: Below IPO price (0.88 → 0.805)

👉 Key signal:

✔ Strong primary market liquidity

❗ Weak secondary market confidence

👉 Question: Would you subscribe to SGX IPOs, or wait for post-listing dips?

2️⃣ Policy: SGX Is Actively Competing for Capital

(1) SGX–Nasdaq Dual Listing Mechanism

• Targets companies with market cap ≥ S$2B

• Simplifies cross-border listing process

👉 Implication:

SGX aims to attract more high-growth tech companies

(2) Gold Trading Hub (Biggest Macro Catalyst)

Led by the Monetary Authority of Singapore

👉 Impact chain:

• Benefits exchange: $SGX(S68.SI)$

• Benefits banks: $DBS(D05.SI)$ , $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$

3️⃣ Derivatives Boom: SGX’s Real Growth Engine

Q1 drivers:

• A50 futures (China hedging demand)

• Taiwan index futures (AI trading momentum)

• FX futures (rising volatility)

👉 One-line summary:

SGX growth is no longer driven by equities, but by global risk trading

🔮 4. Q2 Outlook: Three Key Themes + Trade Opportunities

1️⃣ Theme One: High Dividends (Banks + REITs)

Logic:

• Rates remain elevated

• Investors prefer stable cash flow

Focus:

• $DBS(D05.SI)$

• $UOB(U11.SI)$

• $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$

👉 Watch out:

REITs still face refinancing risks

2️⃣ Theme Two: AI & Semiconductors (Upside Potential)

Macro backdrop:

• AI demand supports Singapore’s electronics exports

• Semiconductor activity improving

Key names:

• $UMS(558.SI)$

• $AEM SGD(AWX.SI)$

👉 Question:

Can SGX replicate Taiwan’s AI rally, or will capital remain in U.S. markets?

3️⃣ Theme Three: Commodities / Gold

Drivers:

• Gold trading hub initiative

• Global safe-haven demand

Beneficiaries:

• SGX

• Commodity-related companies

⚠️ 5. Risks to Watch

• ❗ Continued IPO underperformance → weak market confidence

• ❗ Liquidity still concentrated in a few names

• ❗ Uncertainty in Fed rate trajectory

🧾 6. Conclusion

SGX sent a clear signal in Q1 2026: It is evolving into a “global capital trading platform,” not just a local stock market.

For investors:

👉 Opportunities are emerging, but not yet broad-based 👉 Selective opportunities > broad bull market

💬 Questions for Discussion

1. Among banks, REITs, and AI, which sector would you prioritize?

2. If there’s a pullback in Q2, would you add SGX exposure or rotate to U.S./HK markets?

Feel free to share your thoughts 👇

📚 Sources

This article is based on:

• Singapore Exchange logs record half-year profit, highlights growing IPO pipeline

• Early 2026: 100 Singapore Stocks Now Trading Over S$1M a Day

• Singapore raises 2026 growth forecast on global economic momentum and AI demand

• REIT Watch - UI Boustead REIT: A New Entrant in Singapore’s Industrial REIT Space

• Singapore's Nasdaq link draws interest, but threshold and liquidity may limit take-up

• SGX Group posts strong February performance with highest SDAV in six years

• Singapore sets out plans to build Asia gold trading hub

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