To The Moon

$DBS(D05.SI)$ will fire the first shot on April 30, followed by $UOB(U11.SI)$ (May 7) and $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ (May 8).

Goldman’s latest report gives a clear verdict: overall earnings should be “decent enough,” but the divergence among the three banks is becoming more obvious — net interest margin pressure, wealth management as a bright spot, and credit costs as the biggest hidden risk. Which one are you betting on?

Goldman Takeaway: What’s the Core Logic This Quarter?

Goldman’s overall forecast for 1Q26 is: quarter-on-quarter recovery, but mild year-on-year pressure.

Three numbers will determine the direction of share prices on earnings day: the actual decline in net interest income (NII), the resilience of wealth management fees and cost of credit (CoC)

The main drag is structural net interest margin (NIM) compression. Both SORA (Singapore Overnight Rate Average) and HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) have moved lower, putting unavoidable pressure on the big three banks’ NII.

Now that global rates have peaked and begun to ease, NIM has entered a structural downtrend. The market debate is whether this decline will be a mild adjustment (soft landing) or whether profits will quickly revert(hard landing).

Goldman leans toward the former — it believes loan growth, wealth management, and cost control can offset most of the margin pressure, meaning profitability should not collapse off a cliff. But whether that view holds true will be tested in this earnings season.

How Will DBS, OCBC, and UOB Diverge?

$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$: The Defensive Favorite, Smallest Year-on-Year Compression

Goldman expects OCBC’s earnings to decline just 0.3% YoY, making it the most resilient of the three.

Its wealth management business, through Bank of Singapore, has built a deep moat among Asia’s high-net-worth clients, giving it more stable fee income. In addition, OCBC’s balance sheet structure is relatively conservative, so its margin compression tends to be slower than peers in a falling-rate environment.

For investors who prefer a steadier profile and do not want to make a high-beta earnings-season bet, OCBC currently offers the highest level of certainty. Goldman maintains a Buy rating.

$DBS(D05.SI)$: The Flagship Name, With the Strongest Wealth Management Angle

DBS is the largest of the three by market capitalization and also the most diversified. It is Goldman’s other clear Buy-rated name.

The core investment case for DBS is that its fee income mix is more exposed than UOB and OCBC to wealth management and capital markets, both of which are seeing the strongest seasonal recovery this quarter.

Two numbers matter most for DBS this quarter: the growth rate of wealth management AUM & management’s updated guidance for full-year NIM

The latter will directly influence how the market re-prices full-year earnings expectations

$UOB(U11.SI)$: Under the Most Pressure, But Has the Valuation Already Discounted It?

Goldman expects UOB’s earnings to decline 4.4% YoY, the sharpest drop among the three, and it currently does not carry a Goldman Buy rating.

UOB’s issue is not just a one-quarter disruption, but a more structural one: its loan book has greater exposure to ASEAN markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, where credit quality pressures are more visible amid falling rates and macro uncertainty.

Of course, bad news can also create opportunity — if UOB’s actual results come in better than the expected -4.4%, or if management offers constructive guidance, the stock could see a stronger-than-expected rebound.

💬 Community Discussion

Which Singapore bank are you currently holding or watching?

Where do you think the biggest earnings surprise risk lies this quarter?

Are Singapore bank stocks expensive right now?

The big three are currently trading at roughly 1.1x–1.6x P/B, with dividend yields around 5%–6%. Compared with global banks, the valuations are not exactly cheap, but they are supported by stable dividends, solid asset quality, and a predictable regulatory environment.

Do you think current valuations are fair? Or is the impact of falling margins still being underestimated?

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