Citi, BofA, and UBS Bet on These 3 Earnings Themes: Which Side Are You On?
Big tech earnings are around the corner! Let’s see how institutions focus on this earnings season!
Citi: S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth is expected at +13.1% YoY, with the tech sector taking the lead.
Tech earnings growth forecast: +45%, highest across all sectors
Positive surprise probability: 90%, leading the second place (consumer staples at 70%) by 20 percentage points
Overall Q1 beat rate: 62%, the second-highest quarter since 2022
Three key themes wall street is betting on: will earnings season validate them?
📌 AI Cloud ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ / $Alphabet(GOOG)$ )
Citi:
Azure Q3 expected at +39% cc, 1pp above company guidance . FY27 expected at 41% vs consensus 37%
Google Cloud +57.5% vs consensus +46.8% (11pp gap) ; Gemini MAU at 750M, Q1 DAU +268% YoY
Morgan Stanley:
MSFT price target $650 (vs current $423, +54% upside) ; Copilot paid seats at 15M; RPO +110% YoY to $625B
📌 Semiconductors
UBS:
$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ up 20% in the past month, a move seen only 4 times in the past 5 years
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ capex projected at $75B in 2027 and $85B in 2028
📌 AI Infrastructure
Citi:
AI server spending +70% YoY in 2026E; Non-AI server spending revised up from +7% to +50%
BofA:
Sees a $5.5 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity. The real opportunity is not chips, but power grids, cooling water, and transformers
⚠️ After software surged +13.6% in a single week (the biggest gain in a decade), Morgan Stanley warned that this rally is likely to fade.
What’s Your Take on This Earnings Season?
AI Cloud: After massive capex, are Azure / AWS growth rates truly inflecting?
Ads: Is Google search ad recovery real, or just a low-base effect?
Semiconductors: With model diversification, is NVIDIA’s CUDA moat still intact?
Consumer Electronics: Will iPhone China + Services show a real rebound this quarter?
Quick Poll: Which Theme Do You Buy Most This Earnings Season?
A. AI Cloud acceleration
B. Ad recovery
C. Semiconductors / AI infrastructure
D. Consumer electronics rebound
Drop your choice in the comments and win tiger coins!
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Azure Q3 expected at +39% cc, 1pp above company guidance . FY27 expected at 41% vs consensus 37%
Google Cloud +57.5% vs consensus +46.8% (11pp gap) ; Gemini MAU at 750M, Q1 DAU +268% YoY
NVIDIA still leads. CUDA remains deeply embedded, and near-term demand > supply. Custom chips are a long-term threat, not immediate.
AI Cloud: Microsoft Azure and Amazon AWS should improve, but growth is still capex-driven. Margins matter more than headline growth.
Ads: Google recovery looks partly base effect. Real test is sustained search demand amid AI disruption.
Consumer: Apple may struggle. China remains soft; Services helps but may not fully offset hardware weakness.
View: AI infra is the only clear, durable earnings engine this season.