To The Moon

C3.ai has honestly been one of my biggest investing regrets so far. My position is currently sitting at almost a 75% paper loss, and looking back, I can admit that I got caught up in the hype surrounding AI stocks a few years ago. At that time, anything related to artificial intelligence was flying, and C3.ai was marketed as one of the few "pure AI" companies in the market. Instead of focusing deeply on fundamentals, profitability, and execution, I treated it more like a meme trade and speculative bet on the AI narrative.

Thankfully, the position size was never very large, which is why I'm still comfortable holding and averaging down today. My strategy now is less about believing C3.ai will become the next great software giant, and more about improving my average entry price so I can potentially break even faster during future rebounds. AI-related stocks are still extremely volatile, and even weak companies can experience sharp rallies whenever market sentiment turns bullish again on the sector. Recently, C3.ai shares have shown occasional rebounds as investors continue searching for smaller AI names that could benefit from the broader AI spending cycle.

At the same time, I still recognize why the market has punished this stock so heavily. C3.ai continues to struggle with slowing growth, ongoing losses, and concerns over whether its business model can scale profitably. Recent reports showed revenue pressure and weaker enterprise spending trends, while analysts expect fiscal 2026 revenue to decline significantly before any possible recovery afterward. The company has also gone through leadership uncertainty, with founder Thomas Siebel recently returning as CEO after management changes earlier in the year. These are not exactly the signs investors want to see from a high-growth AI company.

To be fair, C3.ai is not entirely without positives. The company has recently seen stronger traction in its federal and defense business, with government-related bookings growing sharply year-over-year. Partnerships with large ecosystem players like Microsoft and Booz Allen also show that the company still has some relevance within the enterprise AI space. There were even market rumors earlier this year about possible merger discussions involving Automation Anywhere, which briefly reignited investor interest in the stock. Still, the company remains in a "show me" phase where investors need to see consistent execution and real profitability improvement before confidence can fully return.

This experience taught me an important lesson about investing during hype cycles. A good story alone is never enough, especially in the technology sector where valuations can become detached from reality very quickly. Today, I view C3.ai more as a recovery trade rather than a genuine long-term conviction investment. Averaging down may help me reduce losses if the stock rebounds, but it also serves as a reminder that chasing momentum without strong fundamentals can become expensive tuition fees in the market. Sometimes the best investments are not the ones that make us money immediately, but the ones that teach us discipline for the future.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

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