The divergence among major banks comes down to one question: is gold still primarily a safe-haven asset, or has it become a macro trade on interest rates and the US dollar?
Bullish banks argue that central bank buying, fiscal deficits, geopolitical risks, and potential future rate cuts support gold over the long term. Bearish banks focus on sticky inflation, higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and reduced safe-haven demand if global growth remains resilient.
As for ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF flows are often momentum-driven and can overshoot in both directions. A 17% correction after a strong rally is painful, but not unusual for gold.
That said, I would also avoid aggressively "catching the falling knife". If ETF outflows are accompanied by falling central bank demand and rising real yields, the downside may not be over.
My approach would be gradual accumulation rather than an all-in dip buy. Gold still has a role as a portfolio diversifier, but the strongest upside case likely requires either a weaker dollar, lower real rates, or a significant macro shock. Until then, volatility may remain high and both bulls and bears can make a credible case.
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