Neutral Technicals Win: From $SPX to $BTC, Precision Beats Bias
I remain bullish when technical conditions support it and bearish when a reversal is likely.
For instance, there are metal-focused outlets that have maintained a bullish stance since March in Gold and Silver despite of the clear overextension that needed a major correction, crypto publications insisting in a bounce when technicals did not support that, and others that remain dogmatically bullish on semiconductors regardless of the charts.
Will they reach all-time highs again? Certainly. However, identifying exactly when and how much pain is required to get there is where neutral, professional technical analysis provides the most value.
I was bullish at the market bottom in late March providing clear references, targeting 7,638 for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and announcing on the day that 7,620 was reached, that the milestone could be considered met. More recently, over the past two weeks, we have monitored the internal divergence in tech, including the bearish call in late June for semiconductors, while simultaneously providing specific bullish targets for a bounce in select Magnificent Seven（ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ） names. That is neutrality, and that is how you outperform the market.
When indices are choppy, individual names are key: Three weeks ago, I highlighted the probabilities for a bullish reversal in Bitcoin, providing specific targets along with risk management and invalidation levels. Bitcoin and Ethereum, tracked via their respective ETFs $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ and $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA)$ , have since jumped 6% and 15% reaching this week our targets of 37 🎯 and over 14 🎯, respectively.
MSFT surpassed this week our bullish target of 396 by nearing the documented extension at 406 for a 5.6% move 🎯, while $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ hit its bullish target extension at 117.3 for a 3% gain 🎯, and as mentioned above, $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ surpassed 147.6 with comfort 🎯.
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