OUST: Robotics is Really Just Getting Starting
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!
Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost).
A reminder on how I see it at $180+
-> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance).
-> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA.
-> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth).
-> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B.
> Add in $250M in net cash
-> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is fair/conservative.
-> That gets you to ~$170
Slight tweaks either way get you a range ~$155-$195 I think over the next 3-4 years.
Robotics is really just getting starting...as is the entire AI trade.
But robotics even more so.
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