$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ risk to reward makes complete sense. Here's why: BULL CASE: The bull case is a situation where management forecasts happen. I.e. $471M/month in revenue by mid 2027 / $5.6B (likely more) in revenue by FY28. $Lumentum(LITE)$ has a current sales multiple of 13x. 20% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is attributed to this segment so 20% * 13x = 2.6x sales. Innolight and Eoptolink trade ~9x sales and this is where 80% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is likely to come from. 80% * 9x = 7.2x Blended multiple = 9.8
Here's my 2030 $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ estimate: -> $950M in revenue in 2030 (41% CAGR from today / midpoint of management guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins (bull case) -> $330M in EBITDA -> 30% EBITDA margins (base case) -> $285M in EBITDA -> $330M in EBITDA multiplied by 30x EBITDA (bull case) gives us a $9.9B EV (vs $2.4B today) -> $285M in EBITDA multiplied by 25x EBITDA (base case) gives us a $7.1B EV (vs $2.4B today).
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Has $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ become one of the more manipulated stocks in the market? -24% today on a beat and guidance raise. - Last 2 quarters we saw +15% moves pre-market only to finish the day negative 10%. Big picture look at the trends: -> LAE to 5% -> GLR at 60% -> Adj. EBITDA profitability in Q4 -> Premium per customer up 2 Before anyone starts to lose faith in their holdings post earnings report sell offs... Just realize $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ probably couldn't have produced a better ER if they tried. And they're now down 7% from reporting. The CEO even said "our engagement with customers
AEHR& FLNC: Two Names I Think People Need to Understand More
Two names I think people need to understand more: 1. $Aehr Test(AEHR)$: -> Now given back nearly all of earnings gain (which was +40%). -> So many names map back to $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ -> Guiding for $140M (midpoint) which is ~170% growth from FY26 expected revenue for 20x sales. -> Not cheap...but certainly a big opportunity when you take into account $100M backlog too. 2. $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$: -> Now given back more than the Q1 earnings jump -> FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2B - $3.6B and the current MC is $2.5B. -> And then there's $5.6B in backlog which DOES NOT include the hyperscaler p
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I always take what Elon says with a pinch of salt but directionally he's been correct almost every time. Here's what he's saying on the robotics future: 1. Reinforced Optimus will be potentially the biggest product ever. -> Optimus 3 targets 1M units/year -> Optimus 4 targets 10M units/year Think of the numbers on that in terms of potential revenue: Assuming ~$30k value and selling all units (very broad assumption): -> Optimus 3 = $30B/year -> Optimus 4 = $300B/year Longer term remember Elon calls the revenue potential "north of $10 trillion." Probably early. Very early. But directionally he's consistently correct and this has to give you some confidence in the robotics future:
Robotics is moving so fast...here's some of the data from the last couple months: 1. Morgan Stanley put their TAM to $25T by 2050 (humanoid market at $5T). 2. We've had the first way to publicly invest in humanoids through $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. -> On that point, Agility uses ~75% US sourced parts (very bullish). 3. Private market deals have already topped $23B in 2026. -> Saronic: $1.75B raise -> Apptronik: $935M raise -> Figure AI: $39B valuation -> Neura Robotics: $1.4B raise The public markets haven't caught up to what's happening in the private markets yet. 4. Morgan Stanley put out a report forecasting a 300x growth in the bearings market by 2050. 5.
I'm all for concentration and against over diversification. I'm the biggest voucher out there that owning individual stocks is the way forward vs ETFs. We're in a stock pickers market more than any time in history: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ YTD 220% $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ YTD 82% $Micron Technology(MU)$ YTD 238% etc etc vs $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ at 9.7% BUT It's sad to see this whole "all-in" investing with one or two stocks becoming 100% of people's net worth become a norm. Yes there are success stories. But there are FAR MORE disaster stories. I
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost). A reminder on how I see it at $180+ -> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA. -> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth). -> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B. > Add in $250M in net cash -> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some ai trading ideas with you! 1 $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ is nearly back at highs after the space / high beta sell off. Reminder: Set to hit $150M in revenue by FY29 which means it's growing ~32% CAGR over the next 3 years. Whilst trading at 8x sales vs a company like $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ at 32x sales. Again, not making the claim that $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ should trade in line with $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ but for similar growth forecasts, I'm not sure the difference should in multiple for be fo