To The Moon

Just some back of the napkin maths on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$from MS: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS: AWS Q2 2026 revenue came in at $42.2B. That's an annualized run rate of $169B. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ management have said it's very possible AWS reaches a $1T annual revenue business. Constraint is entirely capacity driven with a huge $496B backlog. But let's model out the path to $1T in annual revs: Capacity ~14 GW in 2025 -> 120 GW in 2035. -> ~6 GW in 2026 and then ~8 GW per year thereafter. -> Monetization rises to ~$12 revenue per incremental watt. -> Which means at $12/W, each 8 GW of new capacity adds $96B in ann

Here's my 2030 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ estimate: -> 5GW capacity is contracted by YE 26 with 1GW capacity to be deployed per year from FY 27. -> Mid-term ACV is ~$20-25M as per management (for reference it used to be ~$12M). So a BULL case model would look something like this: 5.2 GW connected capacity by 2030 on a blended ARR/MW of $14M (that's a realistic haircut on utilization, mix, and timing vs the $20-25M forecasted. 5,200 MW * $14M = $72.8B ARR With EBITDA margins forecasted to stabilize near 45%... we're then looking at ~$32.7B in EBITDA. Bull case multiple: 25x Base case multiple: 18x Bear case multiple: 13x 25x * $32.7B -> $817B 18x * $32.7B -> $588B 13x * $32.7B -> $425B Or go more conservative (which is fair) and

Some of the more exciting themes right now: 1. Silicon Photonics Safest bet: $Lumentum(LITE)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ Moderate risk: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ Highest risk: $POET Technologies Inc(POET)$ $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$ 2. Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Safest bet:

Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: 1. OPTICS SEGMENT Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs. Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028. 2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29. 3. TOTAL REVS Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here. 60% * $822M = $493M in revs 80% * $822M = $657 in revs 4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES Current share count is at 69.7M. SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting

95% of X is focused on semis, photonics, and memory it seems? What about the AI drug discovery theme? -> $AbCellera Biologics(ABCL)$ +55% in a week. -> $Tempus AI(TEM)$ still wildly undervalued, especially post $Microsoft(MSFT)$ partnership. -> $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ as the $1.1T (future -> $4T drug discovery leader). What about the critical minerals/materials/metals theme everyone on X went crazy about last year and then forgot about? -> $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ is likely no longer

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ risk to reward makes complete sense. Here's why: BULL CASE: The bull case is a situation where management forecasts happen. I.e. $471M/month in revenue by mid 2027 / $5.6B (likely more) in revenue by FY28. $Lumentum(LITE)$ has a current sales multiple of 13x. 20% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is attributed to this segment so 20% * 13x = 2.6x sales. Innolight and Eoptolink trade ~9x sales and this is where 80% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is likely to come from. 80% * 9x = 7.2x Blended multiple = 9.8

Here's my 2030 $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ estimate: -> $950M in revenue in 2030 (41% CAGR from today / midpoint of management guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins (bull case) -> $330M in EBITDA -> 30% EBITDA margins (base case) -> $285M in EBITDA -> $330M in EBITDA multiplied by 30x EBITDA (bull case) gives us a $9.9B EV (vs $2.4B today) -> $285M in EBITDA multiplied by 25x EBITDA (base case) gives us a $7.1B EV (vs $2.4B today).

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Has $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ become one of the more manipulated stocks in the market? -24% today on a beat and guidance raise. - Last 2 quarters we saw +15% moves pre-market only to finish the day negative 10%. Big picture look at the trends: -> LAE to 5% -> GLR at 60% -> Adj. EBITDA profitability in Q4 -> Premium per customer up 2 Before anyone starts to lose faith in their holdings post earnings report sell offs... Just realize $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ probably couldn't have produced a better ER if they tried. And they're now down 7% from reporting. The CEO even said "our engagement with customers

3 highest conviction themes long-term are: 1. Robotics -> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$: Perception play growing ~49% YoY. -> $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$: Pure humanoid bet. -> $Regal Rexnord(RRX)$: A way to ride the 300x boom in actuators. -> $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: Higher risk (feels like a venture bet) but a 4D LiDAR on robotics. Can even include $Micron Technology(MU)$ in this basket. And then extend this out to rare earths, critical metals etc as well...

Two names I think people need to understand more: 1. $Aehr Test(AEHR)$: -> Now given back nearly all of earnings gain (which was +40%). -> So many names map back to $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ -> Guiding for $140M (midpoint) which is ~170% growth from FY26 expected revenue for 20x sales. -> Not cheap...but certainly a big opportunity when you take into account $100M backlog too. 2. $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$: -> Now given back more than the Q1 earnings jump -> FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2B - $3.6B and the current MC is $2.5B. -> And then there's $5.6B in backlog which DOES NOT include the hyperscaler p