Pretty Difficult to Make a Legitimate LONG TERM Bearish Case
Just some back of the napkin maths on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$from MS:
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS:
AWS Q2 2026 revenue came in at $42.2B. That's an annualized run rate of $169B.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ management have said it's very possible AWS reaches a $1T annual revenue business.
Constraint is entirely capacity driven with a huge $496B backlog.
But let's model out the path to $1T in annual revs:
Capacity ~14 GW in 2025 -> 120 GW in 2035.
-> ~6 GW in 2026 and then ~8 GW per year thereafter.
-> Monetization rises to ~$12 revenue per incremental watt.
-> Which means at $12/W, each 8 GW of new capacity adds $96B in annual revs.
So:
2026: ~$177B
2027: $249B
2028: $341B
Onwards: $96B in increments per year once at $12/W
Which by 2035 equals $1T which is only ~21% CAGR from 2026.
TLDR for AWS: Sustained 8 GW annual adds + rising monetization to $12/W gets AWS to ~$1T in 9 years.
Note: This completely doesn't touch on:
- $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ digital ads
- $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ e-comm
- "Moonshot" bets such as Zoox, Project Kuiper, Twitch
- Subscriptions
- Physical stores
Pretty difficult to make a legitimate LONG TERM bearish case on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ at $2.8T MC.
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