NBIS: MY 2030 Estimate
Here's my 2030 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ estimate:
-> 5GW capacity is contracted by YE 26 with 1GW capacity to be deployed per year from FY 27.
-> Mid-term ACV is ~$20-25M as per management (for reference it used to be ~$12M).
So a BULL case model would look something like this:
5.2 GW connected capacity by 2030 on a blended ARR/MW of $14M (that's a realistic haircut on utilization, mix, and timing vs the $20-25M forecasted.
5,200 MW * $14M = $72.8B ARR
With EBITDA margins forecasted to stabilize near 45%... we're then looking at ~$32.7B in EBITDA.
Bull case multiple: 25x
Base case multiple: 18x
Bear case multiple: 13x
25x * $32.7B -> $817B
18x * $32.7B -> $588B
13x * $32.7B -> $425B
Or go more conservative (which is fair) and go 13x * 75% of the forecasted EBITDA.
13x * $24.5B -> $318B
EV is currently $78B.
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