Here's How I see COIN as a $250B stock (2030-2032)
Here's how I see $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ as a $250B stock (2030-2032):
I'm forecasting $6.2B in stabelcoin revenue:
-> $3T stablecoin supply by 2031.
-> USDC currently 26% of total supply today.
-> $3T * 26% = $780B
-> $780B * 25% of all USDC = $195B of USDC on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
-> 4% yield = $7.8B in stablecoin revenue in 2031
I'm forecasting ~$8.2B in total other revenue (transaction revenue + agentic commerce revenue):
-> Q2 2026 transaction revenue annualized at $2.4B with $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ down. Forecasting $4B by 2031.
-> Prediction markets already at $100M ARR and set to grow towards ~$1B by 2031.
-> Institutional / Deribit should generate $1.5B ($3-5T of institutional notional on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ * ~3-4%).
-> Add in Blockchain rewards, subscription revenue, and interest income of ~$1.7B.
Total revenue is therefore ~$16B by 2031-2032.
30% net income margins -> $4B in net income.
I think we can work towards ~35% net income margins IF stablecoin revenue generates ~40% of the revenue mix that I'm modelling here.
280M shares outstanding (vs 264M today or 1.2% CAGR) = $14.30 EPS.
To reach a $893 share price ($250B MC) we'd then need a 62x EPS multiple.
Sounds pricey but on a forecasted 51% CAGR from 2027 - 2031 it's not an unreasonable multiple.
40x multiple (base case) gives us a $572 stock price (3x from today).
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