MS : SPCX is $15 from Zero AI value ! True ?
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$SpaceX(SPCX)$ stock story since its June 2026 IPO has been dramatic.
On Fri, 12 Jun 2026, SPCX shares debuted at $160.95, then briefly soared past $200, hitting an all-time-high of $225.64 on 16 Jun 2026, and then (without warning) collapsed to nearly $115 by late July 2026, erasing over a trillion dollars in market value, in the process. (see below)
As of 27 Jul 2026 endday
On Mon, 27 Jul 2026, it continues to slide, pushing closer to the $100 mark that $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ warned. (see above)
It showed that market is willing to push closer to the threshold where that “worthless AI” framing becomes more than just a provocative headline.
Morgan Stanley Says.
MS, MD & Global Auto & Shared Mobility research team - Adam Jonas has been clear:
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At $100 per share, the market is only valuing SPCX’s core businesses, that is Starlink and rocket launches.
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And assigning zero or even negative value to its AI arm - an extraordinary signal given how much optimism was embedded in the IPO story
The “AI arm” includes (1) Grok, (2) Cursor, (3) Colossus data center, and (4) ambitious plans for orbital computing.
Jonas still holds a $300 price target, with more than half of that tied to AI.
However, the market’s verdict is harsher, investors are skeptical, and the stock’s trajectory suggests they do not believe the AI story right now.
That framing matters because it cuts through the usual excitement around future potential and asks a harsher question: what is the business worth today if the AI segment is not yet earning its keep?
Why the skeptics?
This is because Grok is widely deployed inside Musk’s own ecosystem — Tesla cars, Starlink support, X’s social platform, Cursor’s developer tools, and even Tesla’s Optimus robot.
These are all in‑house integrations.
There are no major external commercial customers, no Fortune 500 contracts, no government deals.
Without external validation, Grok’s success looks self‑referential.
Worse, Grok has been caught generating harmful deepfakes and explicit content, with SpaceXAI scrambling to add filters, kill switches, and bans. (see below)
These are reactive measures, not proactive standards.
Can you blame Investors for seeing a product that is (a) costly, (b) risky, and (c) unproven beyond Musk’s companies ?
The recent dip does not rescue the AI valuation case.
Instead, it reinforces the idea that the burden of proof remains on SPCX to show that its AI ambitions can become economically meaningful rather than merely strategically interesting.
Financial Balance.
Financially, the AI division is bleeding:
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In Q1 2026, it brought in $818 million in revenue but quarterly lost -$2.47 billion is triple the income.
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Starlink remains profitable ($1.19 billion), but rockets are still loss‑making (-$662 million).
Against this backdrop, MS’s $300 target looks more like a vision than a valuation.
As MS was one of the lead underwriters of SPCX’s IPO, that may explain its bullish stance.
Other banks are more cautious, - $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ has a price target of $205, while RBC at $225.
The deeper issue is not whether Ms is biased, but whether markets can meaningfully price frontier technologies.
Orbital AI data centers and trillion‑dollar projections for 2040 are exciting, but investors today are staring at losses, scandals, and no external buy‑in.
That’s why SPCX’s dip toward $100 is so symbolic: it’s the market saying, “We’ll pay for satellites and rockets, but not for AI dreams.”
My viewpoints : (mine only)
SPCX’s turbulence is not just about one company or one stock.
It’s about the tension between vision & validation.
Innovation can be dazzling, but without standards, external trust, and proven economics, markets often strip it down to zero.
The real question is whether financial systems can keep pace with technologies whose payoff may only be visible decades from now.
If they can’t, then perhaps the future of AI won’t be decided in trading floors or analyst reports at all — but in whether society itself chooses to believe in, regulate, and adopt these tools.
In that sense, the story of Grok is less about being worthless or priceless, and more about whether investors are ready to measure the value of a future that is still being invented.
SPCX, the most expensive stories in the market begin as a dream and end as spreadsheets.
The real test is not whether SPCX can inspire belief, but whether it can keep that belief from collapsing under the weight of numbers. What do you think ?
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Do you think SPCX has hit a rough patch only. It will bounce back real soon.
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Do you think investors are no longer buying into the AI hype of spend, spend & spend. They want to see profits or signs of profit now ?
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Like the MS's prophecy coming true?
What do you think?
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