To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is slated to report its Q2 2026 earnings on Wed, 26 Aug 2026. Is it timely to take a closer look at the stock prior to its earnings release ? I think so, especially if there is a chance to take a position before a potential rally. According to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), the AI chip giant is (currently), holding just above a short handle entry. Near Buy Point ? Last week, shares of the AI chipmaker edged up a fraction, coming in at +0.64%, for the week, enough to put it just -4.8% below a $236.54 buy point from a cup-shape base. Interestingly, NVDA already offered an early entry from a short handle, with the 7 Aug 2026 high of $224.76 marking the exact buy point. The Relative Strength line for the AI chip stock is rising, but still below the consolidation peak. Shares are returning to form after ripping higher for much of the last 3 years. Despite consolidating since its last earnings report in May 2026, NVDA stock bears a +19.23% YTD gain (as of 14 Aug 2026). (see above) Q2 Forecast ? Analysts anticipate that NVDA will nearly double both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in its fiscal second quarter. They see NVDA earnings surging +89% in the current fiscal year (2026) and jumping +42% next year (2027). The top line is seen growing +66% and +82% over those periods, and that's after it more than doubled in the year ended in January. Specifics. Earnings per share (non GAAP) is estimated to come in between $2.08–$2.09 vs $1.05 a year ago. (see below) At the same time, revenue is estimated to be roughly $92 billion vs $46.74 billion, a year ago. (see below) Other earnings variables’ estimates: (see below) Broad consensus from approx. 37–40 analysts What is Market pricing in ? NVDA’s guided for $91.0 billion in Q2 revenue, (±)2%, implying a guidance range of approx. $89.2 - $92.8 billion. Consensus near $91.9 billion is above the midpoint and within management’s own range. That means investors are likely looking for more than a narrow beat. Key items will be: Revenue materially above Wall Street consensus. EPS above consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin holding around +75%. Strong Q3 revenue outlook guidance, likely above existing $102–$103 billion consensus. Evidence of Blackwell demand remains strong and Vera Rubin production timing supports next growth leg. Any commentary on China-related revenue, that was excluded from Nvidia’s Q2 revenue guidance. What BofA thinks ? Separately, TheStreet has an exclusive coverage of $Bank of America(BAC)$’s assessment of NVDA’s impending earnings. BAC remains strongly bullish on NVDA. The bank believes that next-generation Vera Rubin platform could start a multi-quarter growth cycle rather than merely produce a “one-quarter” earnings beat. As a result, BAC keeps NVDA as its top semiconductor pick and sets a $350 price target (PT); that is +55.44% upside from Fri, 14 Aug 2026 closing price of $225.16. BAC, Analyst, Vivek Arya expects the followings for NVDA’s upcoming Q2 2027 earnings (set to marginally exceed both company guidance and broad Wall Street estimates): Revenue - to be $94 –$95 billion vs company guidance of $91 billion vs Wall Street’s consensus. The estimates exclude any China data center compute revenue. This means actuals could come in higher if modest shipments to the Chinese market has resumed, granted that Beijing has approved ‘limited’ imports on 27 Jan 2026. (see below) Q3 revenue guidance - to be $107 –$108 billion vs Wall Street’s consensus of $102-$103 billion. BAC’s key argument is - the start of Vera Rubin deliveries should create an extended hardware upgrade cycle, continuing beyond the upcoming earnings release. Why Vera Rubin matters NVDA’s Jensen Huang has confirmed that Vera Rubin platform had entered full production. It will be available through cloud partners in H2 2026. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Google Cloud, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ have been identified as preparing deployments, with OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX (SPCX)$ among the early customers. TheStreet highlights Vera CPU as a potentially major new revenue source, not merely an add-on to the Rubin GPU. BAC estimates around $20 billion of Vera CPU revenue in H2 2027 and an annualised run rate exceeding $50 billion by fiscal 2028. Demand is bullish proof, BAC points to very high GPU spot-rental pricing as evidence that AI-compute demand remains economically attractive for customers: (see below) The logic is simple: if cloud customers can rent GPUs at elevated prices and still earn acceptable returns, they remain motivated to buy or lease NVDA’s next-generation systems. NVDA’s headwinds. Just so we are clear, it is not 100% rosy for NVDA. Like $Apple(AAPL)$, NVDA is not shielded from rising memory costs. Concerns have grown over these cost that (now) accounts for 40% - 50% of production costs, up from 15% to 20%, and they could greatly reduce NVDA’s high profit margins. However, BAC’s analyst Vivek Arya believes the impact might be minor: Minimal Short-Term Impact: Memory cost increases for new Vera Rubin compute racks will only reduce gross margins by about -0.6%. Over time, margins are expected to adjust slightly from around 75% down to 73–74%, which is still very strong. Manageable Long-Term Risk: Although fully integrated AI systems (pods) could experience up to a -5% margin impact due to extra memory and storage, these products will represent a small portion of initial sales. Strong Position: Long-term supplier agreements with $SK hynix(SKHY)$ and high market demand for GPUs could allow NVDA to pass rising costs on to customers rather than absorbing them. Valuation & risks With NVDA trading at roughly 16× forward earnings, this is the lowest valuation in about a decade, With long-term model assuming NVDA retains more than 70% share in an AI data-centre systems market that could exceed $1.7 trillion, with EPS rising above $13 (in 2027) and $25 (by 2030). Valuations aside, below will be NVDA’s main risks in the next 2 years: AMD gaining traction in AI accelerators. Hyperscalers’ proprietary chips. China export restrictions. AI infrastructure returns disappointing, that could reduce hyperscalers’ capex. Higher memory costs pressuring gross margin. Technical Analysis. Technically, is NVDA’s immediate trajectory aligned with analysts’ consensus ? For that, I turn to NVDA’s (1) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of 20-day, 50-day & 200-day, (2) MACD and (3) RSI. (see above) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). On Fri, 14 Aug 2026, NVDA closed off the week at $225.16 per share. This is higher than its 3 SMAs of 20-day ($209.28), 50-day ($206.31) and 200-day ($194.75). NVDA’s technical trend remains healthy & bullish across short-, medium- and long-term time frames, with buyers maintaining control. A modest pullback would be considered “normal”. MACD. The MACD line (4.90) sits well above the Signal line (2.71) and Zero line, confirming an active bullish crossover It also shows that short-term price velocity is accelerating faster than the medium-term average, signaling strong buying pressure and sustained upward momentum in the immediate term. The strong divergence of 2.18 indicates that bullish momentum is actively expanding rather than fading and has strong backing from momentum traders. RSI. NVDA’s 14-day RSI of 63.19 indicates healthy bullish momentum, where recent gains are outpacing recent losses. With the stock still below the conventional “70” overbought threshold, leaving room for further upside. My viewpoints: (mine only) So far, both banks’ assessment and NVDA’s technical analysis painted a rosy picture of the leading AI chip. For week starting 17 Aug 2026, NVDA will still be affected by overall US market sentiments and economic factors. Higher Treasury yields or hawkish Fed minutes (to be released on Wed, 19 Aug 2026) could pressure NVDA because investors usually pay less for high-growth technology stocks when discount rates rise. Q2 quarterly earnings from major retailers ( $Home Depot(HD)$ - 18 Aug 2026, $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ - 20 Aug 2026) will serve as a bellwether for overall market sentiment. Weak quarterly earnings or softer business data could trigger a broad risk-off move, pulling NVDA lower even though these reports do not directly change its AI-chip demand outlook. Conversely, strong data that pushes yields higher could also weigh on the stock, so the market may react negatively to either growth scare or renewed rate fears. Geopolitical tension and higher oil prices could increase inflation worries and market volatility, making investors more cautious ahead of NVDA’s 26 Aug 2026 earnings report. In summary, NVDA may trade choppily this week, but its larger near-term driver remains (a) expectations for earnings, (b) Blackwell/Vera Rubin demand and (c) forward Q3 2027’s guidance. Do you concur ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Neoclouds war - CRWV vs NBIS. Winner ? US market rally, Reports data show trouble ! GS Sees Something in MSFT, We’re Missing ? Do you think NVDA’s Q2 2027 quarterly earnings will exceed forecasts ? Do you think this week will be a good time to buy into NVDA ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. 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