Lanceljx
08-25 11:09

I would wait for both Nvidia and Jackson Hole to clear rather than add before the print.


The issue is no longer whether Nvidia can beat consensus. Current estimates vary by source, roughly around $92bn revenue and $2.09 EPS, and options imply about a 6% post-earnings move. More importantly, Nvidia has fallen after each of its past four earnings reports despite consistently beating expectations. 


The long-term case remains compelling. The analyst consensus is still Strong Buy, with the $304.73 mean target implying about 46% upside from Monday's close. But this week combines two separate risks: Nvidia determining whether AI spending expectations remain credible, then Warsh potentially moving long-term yields at Jackson Hole. 


I would therefore keep Nvidia rather than sell, but hold new cash until after Wednesday. If Nvidia beats, raises guidance and still sells off, that could actually offer the better entry. I would only rotate towards suppliers selectively, particularly where earnings depend on AI volume growth without Nvidia-like expectations already embedded.


My ranking: wait for Nvidia → buy a strong post-earnings dip → reassess after Warsh. The attractive valuation target does not justify taking two event risks unnecessarily.

# Consensus at $93.6B, Morgan Stanley at $91.1B — Which Bar Is Nvidia Clearing?

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  • AugustineMac-
    ·08-25 12:02
    Those last four post-earnings drops matter more than the beat streak tbh. If this one sells off again after a raise, that setup is usually cleaner than gambling both events.
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