I would wait for the data. Moderna’s rally shows the market is shifting from a short-covering story towards assigning real value to intismeran, and a potential $9.2bn peak-sales opportunity would clearly transform the company’s outlook.
But peak sales are still a model, not realised demand. With LTM revenue around $2.23bn and declining, paying up after another 14% jump leaves little room for disappointing efficacy, regulatory delays or slower commercial adoption.
Merck offers the more diversified route to the same oncology opportunity, but with less upside sensitivity if intismeran succeeds spectacularly. For Moderna, I would rather miss the first part of the move and add after stronger clinical data validate the revenue thesis. At $158+, evidence matters more than analyst targets.
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- SummerNight·08-26 14:12The asymmetry is the point though. Merck's deeper oncology bench gives you other shots on goal if intismeran stumbles, while Moderna is still getting priced like this one readout has to carry the story.LikeReport
- jinxie·08-26 14:122.23bn LTM revenue against a 9.2bn peak-sales model still needs a pretty forgiving discount rate. The hidden drag is pipeline amortization, not just efficacy riskLikeReport