SIVE Valuation Review
Think about $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$'s valuation for a second:
A reminder in Q1, $SIVE said "over the next several years, our CAGR's are expected in the 25-30% range."
Now this could be on the conservative side as that only assumes ~8-10% conversion of pipeline to revenue.
That's probably a base case but let's work slightly more aggressively.
If we work more ~15-20% conversion range (bullish) then the numbers still don't work that nicely.
15% conversion of $1.2B pipeline -> $69M in 2029 (~40% CAGR).
20% conversion (unlikely) of $1.2B pipeline -> $84M in 2029 (~50% CAGR).
That puts $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$ in the range of 9.8x FY29 revenue today.
Now think about the situation we have with a name like $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$
(risky but less so than $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$).
We're looking at ~95% CAGR assuming capacity expansion.
Even risk this capacity expansion by 75% and we're looking at +80% CAGR.
And yet $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ trades sub 2x 2029 modelled revenue.
More growth. Less risk. Cheaper multiple.
I just don't see (yet) see how the risk / reward for $SIVE is currently better than the risk / reward for a company like
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$.
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