To The Moon

One-sentence theme: Low volatility is the calm before the storm — VIX block trades are betting on a volatility rebound, and the upcoming jobs report (Friday) could trigger a pullback regardless of whether the data is good or bad.

I. Sentiment Focus: A Turning Point Is Approaching

Friday Nonfarm Payrolls → Rate-Hike Expectation Trade (Key Variable)

The data will be released one hour before the open, with expectations of August nonfarm payrolls at +58,000 and unemployment at 4.1%.

⚠️ Regardless of the data, the market could pull back: if weak = economic softness; if strong = rate hikes ahead — a lose-lose scenario.

Gold and Bitcoin are expected to trend weaker before September 18 (rate-hike expectations weighing on sentiment).

VIX Block Trade: Betting "Low Volatility Is About to End"

VIX 10/21-expiry 28 Buy Call, 104,400 contracts, $9.6 million notional.

Interpretation: With volatility currently at low levels, this block trade is betting on a volatility rebound before October — the catalyst being rising rate-hike expectations. This aligns with the "pullback regardless of good or bad data" signal: smart money is buying volatility insurance — a turning point is imminent.

II. This Week's Events

Tesla Cybercab Event (9/3): Aiming to fill the 370 gap. If it disappoints, a pullback is likely → a two-way positioning opportunity.

Earnings: DELL (Tuesday after close), AVGO / HPE / SNOW (Wednesday after close).

• DELL / HPE are expected to rally (Lenovo's Hong Kong earnings surged 17% as a read-through) → Sell Put is recommended alongside the block trades.

• AVGO was viewed as bullish, but the large 9/4-expiry 370 Call block was closed out on Friday → wait for earnings before taking a directional stance; don't pre-position.

III. Notable Block Trades (With Interpretation)

• VIX: 10/21 28 Buy Call $VIX 20261021 28.0 CALL$ , 104,400 contracts, $9.6 million → betting on a volatility rebound (catalyst = rate-hike expectations) → a turning point warning.

• MRVL: 10/16 165 Sell Put$MRVL 20261016 165.0 PUT$ , 22,200 contracts → betting it won't break below 165 by expiration (floor support / willing to take assignment).

• AMD: 10/2 410 Sell Put $AMD 20261002 410.0 PUT$, 16,000 contracts → betting it won't break below 410 in September (floor support).

Summary: VIX is betting on a volatility rebound (turning point), while MRVL/AMD are selling Puts at lower levels to set a floor → smart money is buying volatility insurance while collecting premium on individual stocks on dips — a combination of "defending against a turn" and "positioning on pullbacks."

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

• Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact (capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing, but the AI atmosphere tends to heat up first).

• Gold Sell Put: If no rate hike on 9/18, that's bullish for gold. Watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks (⚠️ expect weakness first as rate-hike expectations rise).

• SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM). For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.