To The Moon

I. Key Events

• DELL (Dell Technologies): Guidance Beat, But Be Cautious of Sustainability

FY2027 EPS guidance was raised by 40%, significantly beating expectations. However, caution is warranted — such high growth from a beat may itself be unsustainable; watch for realization risk.

• HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise): Earnings After Close

Earnings are expected to be solid, with this week's implied volatility range at 45–55. However, weighed down by macro headwinds, the stock is likely to gap up and then sell off. A dual-sell strategy (Sell Put + Sell Call) to capture volatility could be considered.

• AVGO (Broadcom): Earnings After Close

Implied volatility range is 335–400. The market is concerned about market share loss at GOOGL (Google) and the lack of clear FY27 guidance, leaning bearish. However, JPM analysts expect FY2027 AI revenue to significantly exceed the $100 billion framework — a wide bull-bear divergence.

• Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate Again

Crude oil surged on Tuesday, but bearish block trades appeared on energy ETFs — the short-term oil rally diverging from industry bearish signals is worth watching.

II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals)

• XLE (Energy ETF) $XLE 20261218 62.5 PUT$ Buy Put, strike 62.5, expiry 2026-12-18, volume 20,000 contracts, notional $4.92 million — interpretation: bearish block trade entering, shorting the oil sector.

• KRE (Regional Bank ETF) $KRE 20270115 85.0 CALL$Sell Call, strike 85, expiry 2027-01-15, volume 25,000 contracts, notional $1.85 million — interpretation: bank stocks have reached a near-term top.

• COIN (Coinbase) $COIN 20260911 190.0 CALL$  Sell Call, strike 190, expiry 2026-09-11, volume 3,998 contracts, notional $1.719 million — interpretation: Bitcoin has topped in the short term.

• AAPL (Apple) $AAPL 20260909 340.0 CALL$  Sell Call, strike 340, expiry 2026-09-09, volume 10,000 contracts (opening) — interpretation: capping Apple's upside.

One-sentence read: All four large block trades are uniformly bearish on the upside — energy, banks, crypto, and Apple are all being capped, with institutions broadly cautious on near-term upside.

III. Macro Themes (Medium-Term Positioning)

• Anthropic IPO (Late September): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact — capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing; watch for liquidity squeeze.

• Gold Sell Put: If the probability of no rate hike on 9/18 increases → bullish for gold. Watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

• SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy Tailwind): Trump Account passive buying continues (7 million accounts already, with the Treasury Department's default investment vehicle being SPYM). The S&P has already risen 3% → structural tailwind. For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.