To The Moon

Early morning momentum around the $770.00 pivot frequently functions as a liquidity sweep rather than a genuine trend continuation. When $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ enters Monday's session squeezed between major support and resistance, chasing the initial 15-minute directional candle carries an elevated risk of getting caught on the wrong side of an institutional reversal.

Why Monday's Opening Move Could Be A Trap

Market makers routinely engineer early morning breakouts outside pre-market boundaries to trigger retail stop orders and fill large institutional orders before reversing price back into the core value area.

• The Bull Trap Scenario: A fast gap up or morning rally above $773.20 that fails to attract expanding volume will trap late longs at the top of the range before rotating violently down toward $770.00.

• The Bear Trap Scenario: An aggressive opening sell-off through $766.00 that lacks continuation will trap panic sellers right into strong buyer demand, triggering a sharp short squeeze back toward $772.00.

• 3 Key Levels Every $SPY Trader Must Watch

1. $773.20 – $775.00 (Overhead Resistance Zone): The primary supply area. A sustained 15-minute candle close above $773.50 is required to confirm a genuine bullish breakout toward $778.00.

2. $770.00 (Neutral Pivot / VWAP Line):$SPY closed Friday at $770.19. Holding above $770.00 keeps short-term buyers in control, while falling below shifts intraday bias toward test of lower support.

3. $766.00 (Major Support & Demand): Critical line in the sand for bulls. Losing $766.00 on high volume opens the door for a deeper leg down toward $761.50.

Execution Guidelines

• Wait out the first 15–30 minutes: Let opening order flow clear and wait for a established high/low range before taking a position.

• Confirm before entry: Look for price acceptance (multiple candle closes outside key levels) rather than entering on the initial wick break.

• Keep risk defined: Place stop losses strictly beyond the local sweep wick ($1.50 to $2.00 risk per SPY share).