To The Moon

I keep hearing the bull case, and apparently it now requires Kevin Warsh and the Fed to perform a magic trick.

Suppose Warsh miraculously doesn’t hike. Fantastic. Pop the champagne, fire up the algos and buy everything because disaster has officially been postponed until the next FOMC meeting.

Except the threat of a hike doesn’t disappear. It simply becomes the charming little macro landmine sitting underneath the market for the rest of the year. Every inflation print, jobs number, oil spike and Fed speech becomes another episode of “Will They or Won’t They?”

And if the Fed does hike? Congratulations—the bulls get the tightening they insist is already priced in.

If the Fed doesn’t hike? Congratulations again—the market gets to spend the next few months wondering when Warsh finally pulls the trigger.

Damned if they do. Damner if they don’t.

Wall Street can keep paying premium multiples for the privilege of guessing what Kevin Warsh is thinking. I’ll keep my cash, grab the popcorn and watch the professionals explain why inflation is bullish, $100 oil is bullish, 5% Treasury yields are bullish, and apparently rate hikes are bullish too.

At this rate, I’m starting to wonder what would actually qualify as bearish.

There will always be another trade.

There doesn’t always have to be my trade.