🌟🌟🌟I am pitching my tent on

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koolgal
09-15 19:05

🌟🌟🌟I am pitching my tent on the 25bp reality check. Why? With bond yields rising and core CPI picking up, traders are pricing in a huge 90% chance that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will pull the trigger on a 25 basis points hike this week. It is the expected thing to do. If he skips it, it would make him appear to be asleep at the wheel.

Which asset class suffers the most?

Real Estate will suffer the most as high interest rate is bad for property. Mortgages go up, buyers vanish & commercial real estate refinancing becomes difficult.

A close 2nd would be Bitcoin as it is a speculative risk on asset which would normally be dumped for safety.

3rd would be tech stocks like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ because high rates hurt growth stocks as future earnings are worth less today.

4th would be Gold as higher yields hurt Gold because it pays no interest. It can be regarded as a safe haven too.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

# Fed Rate Decision Due: Can Markets Absorb a 25 bps Hike?

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cheezzy
·09-15 20:02
The dollar matters more here. If the hike lands and DXY catches a bid, EM FX and dollar priced commodities probably feel it faster than real estate.
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keke006
·09-15 20:02
I care more about compute scarcity than rate math. Blackwell demand and CUDA lock-in do not get repriced by 25bp that easily
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But \"already priced in\" is a calculation, and it gets redone the moment the path is redrawn. Have the big banks called this right?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bbdce0c3859b57aa6bde24d88d8f427"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de768538408c7afa13f30539f81a762a"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de768538408c7afa13f30539f81a762a"}],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>🌟🌟🌟I am pitching my tent on the 25bp reality check.&nbsp; Why? With bond yields rising and core CPI picking up, traders are pricing in a huge 90% chance that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will pull the trigger on a 25 basis points hike this week.&nbsp; It is the expected thing to do. If he skips it, it would make him appear to be asleep at the wheel.\n\nWhich asset class suffers the most?\nReal Estate will suffer the most as high interest rate is bad for property.&nbsp; Mortgages go up, buyers vanish &amp; commercial real estate refinancing becomes difficult.\nA close 2nd would be Bitcoin as it is a speculative risk on asset which would normally be dumped for safety.\n3rd would be tech stocks like <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\"> $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ </a>because high rates hurt growth stocks as future earnings are worth less today.\n4th would be Gold as higher yields hurt Gold because it pays no interest.&nbsp; It can be regarded as a safe haven too.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\"> @Tiger_SG </a> <t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de768538408c7afa13f30539f81a762a\"></t-t></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>🌟🌟🌟I am pitching my tent on the 25bp reality check.&nbsp; Why? With bond yields rising and core CPI picking up, traders are pricing in a huge 90% chance that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will pull the trigger on a 25 basis points hike this week.&nbsp; It is the expected thing to do. If he skips it, it would make him appear to be asleep at the wheel.\n\nWhich asset class suffers the most?\nReal Estate will suffer the most as high interest rate is bad for property.&nbsp; Mortgages go up, buyers vanish &amp; commercial real estate refinancing becomes difficult.\nA close 2nd would be Bitcoin as it is a speculative risk on asset which would normally be dumped for safety.\n3rd would be tech stocks like <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\"> $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ </a>because high rates hurt growth stocks as future earnings are worth less today.\n4th would be Gold as higher yields hurt Gold because it pays no interest.&nbsp; It can be regarded as a safe haven too.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\"> @Tiger_SG </a> <t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de768538408c7afa13f30539f81a762a\"></t-t></body></html>","text":"🌟🌟🌟I am pitching my tent on the 25bp reality check. Why? With bond yields rising and core CPI picking up, traders are pricing in a huge 90% chance that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will pull the trigger on a 25 basis points hike this week. It is the expected thing to do. If he skips it, it would make him appear to be asleep at the wheel. Which asset class suffers the most? Real Estate will suffer the most as high interest rate is bad for property. Mortgages go up, buyers vanish & commercial real estate refinancing becomes difficult. A close 2nd would be Bitcoin as it is a speculative risk on asset which would normally be dumped for safety. 3rd would be tech stocks like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ because high rates hurt growth stocks as future earnings are worth less today. 4th would be Gold as higher yields hurt Gold because it pays no interest. It can be regarded as a safe haven too. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/608075407754048","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["NVDA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":754,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":608105671041368,"commentId":"608105671041368","gmtCreate":1789473753748,"gmtModify":1789540160154,"authorId":9000000000000358,"author":{"id":9000000000000358,"idStr":"9000000000000358","authorId":9000000000000358,"name":"cheezzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b1d941a51e1a5f1ca29e3f8ce62213","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608075407754048,"objectIdStr":"608075407754048","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"The dollar matters more here. If the hike lands and DXY catches a bid, EM FX and dollar priced commodities probably feel it faster than real estate.","text":"The dollar matters more here. If the hike lands and DXY catches a bid, EM FX and dollar priced commodities probably feel it faster than real estate.","html":"The dollar matters more here. If the hike lands and DXY catches a bid, EM FX and dollar priced commodities probably feel it faster than real estate.","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":608089479795320,"commentId":"608089479795320","gmtCreate":1789473753648,"gmtModify":1789540160421,"authorId":3479274814931736,"author":{"id":3479274814931736,"idStr":"3479274814931736","authorId":3479274814931736,"name":"keke006","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07c96db55686042cdad8d7a5bde041d7","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608075407754048,"objectIdStr":"608075407754048","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I care more about compute scarcity than rate math. Blackwell demand and CUDA lock-in do not get repriced by 25bp that easily","text":"I care more about compute scarcity than rate math. Blackwell demand and CUDA lock-in do not get repriced by 25bp that easily","html":"I care more about compute scarcity than rate math. Blackwell demand and CUDA lock-in do not get repriced by 25bp that easily","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}