To The Moon

With the Fed’s policy decision landing today investors are clearly signaling what they want: a central bank that stops waiting and starts acting. The era of “let’s be patient” appears over. Markets want conviction, not caution.

That tension was visible throughout Tuesday’s session. Fresh geopolitical shocks out of the Middle East pushed crude sharply higher -both Brent and WTI - while the dollar strengthened and risk appetite faded.

Major indexes closed lower:

• $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –0.78% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.45%

• Dow: –0.63%

The bond market added its own warning: the 10‑year Treasury briefly touched 5%, settling just a hair below at 4.995%, a level not seen since 2007. When long‑term yields revisit historic highs, markets tend to pay attention.

US10Y

Crypto Takes a Hit as Legislation Stalls

The crypto sector faced its own setback. The Clarity Act, a flagship regulatory priority for the industry, failed to advance after lawmakers questioned whether the bill adequately prevents public officials from profiting off crypto projects.

A procedural vote collapsed 49–50, well short of the 60 votes needed. With midterms approaching, Congress is unlikely to revisit the issue soon, a meaningful blow for an industry seeking clearer regulatory boundaries.

The market reaction was immediate: $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ dropped 10.1%, making it the day’s biggest loser.

Sector Snapshot

• Hot Stock: Skyworks Solutions +13.6%

• Biggest Loser: Coinbase –10.1%

• Best Sector: Energy +2.3%

• Worst Sector: Consumer Discretionary –1.8%

Energy strength was no surprise given the surge in crude. Consumer discretionary weakness reflects rate sensitivity and the drag from higher financing costs.

The Real Question: One Hike or the Start of a Cycle?

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today, the first increase in more than three years. But the real debate isn’t about today’s move. It’s about what comes next.

Market pricing now shows a 91% probability of a 25‑basis‑point hike, up sharply from 60% last week. The new target range would move from 3.75%–3.75% to 4%.

But history suggests the Fed rarely hikes once and walks away. Since formal rate announcements began in 1996, nearly every tightening cycle has involved multiple increases. The only exception was 1997.

Inflation has sat above target for more than five years. Add in trade disruptions, surging oil, and rising input costs tied to the AI supply chain, and the case for additional tightening strengthens.

The bond market agrees: The 2‑year Treasury yield sits roughly 1 percentage point above the current fed‑funds range, a classic signal that investors expect more hikes ahead.

What’s Coming Today

• Lennar reports Q3 earnings

• August retail & food‑service sales (expected +0.8% MoM)

• Housing Market Index (expected 34, signaling builder pessimism)

• FOMC rate decision at 2 p.m. ET

• Chairman Warsh press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET

Markets aren’t just waiting for a rate hike, they’re waiting for a message. A signal of direction. A sense of how far the Fed is willing to go. Today, they’ll get it.

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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