To The Moon

Week That Was. If readers have gone through my post for last week cum last Friday, (click here ! to read if you have not read it yet) , you would have recalled my moderately “bearish" outlook for stocks that week, citing bearish seasonality, mixed technicals, and uncertainty around the trajectory of oil prices and yields. US Market. Overall for week ending 25 Sep 2026, the 3 composite indexes were: DJIA : -0.21% (-108.14 to 51,828.62). S&P 500 : +0.66% (+50.58 to 7,743.41). Nasdaq: +1.29% (+345.52 to 27,068.72). The S&P 500 (market-cap weighted) Index and Nasdaq Composite were higher on the week, while the Dow turned out to be modestly lower. Once again, oil prices and bond yields were important factors for stocks that week. On Mon, 21 Sep 2026, oil prices were down roughly -5%, and Treasury yields were also lower. That helped to provide a lift to all of the major indices. Also on Monday, reports that $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ would increase prices by +10% in Q4 2026, helped light a fire in chip stocks. That pushed the $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ back above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in over a month. (see above) The lift in sentiment around tech and the artificial intelligence (AI) complex also sent the Nasdaq Composite to a fresh record high that day. However, mid-week stocks were hit by a surge in Treasury yields following a set of exceptionally strong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports on Wed, 23 Sep 2026. The reports showed both (a) acceleration in economic activity and (b) higher input costs. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries moved higher by +0.14%, eclipsing the key 5.0% level and closing at fresh cycle highs of 5.114%. US Treasury yields have continued to march higher since then, as have global bond yields. (see above) Higher interest rates are negative to the equity risk premium (excess return on stocks over a risk-free rate, such as Treasuries), as it offers a more attractive alternative to stocks. And it (generally) raises borrowing costs for corporations, that could negatively impact profitability and margins. As a result, stocks have mostly been under pressure over the past 48 hours but have found some "bid support" on lower oil prices (WTI crude down by -2.29% to $92.44 /barrel at the time of writing. (see below) Oil prices ‘further’ dropped following reports that Iran's foreign minister proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (see below) This is not the first time Wall Street has reacted positively to news of a potential deal between the US and Iran. If the two countries are really able to come to terms on a peaceful resolution to the war, perhaps this will help bring oil prices down and cool the recent surge in global bond yields. But, the full of himself Trump, has announced over the weekend that US will not be negotiating. (see above) Cannot wait to see how this plays out in the last days of September 2026. Week That Will Be. With US market ending Friday on a high note, sets the tone for the market coming into the last trading days of September 2026 - typically a bearish month in US stock market calender. Will the 2 key catalysts for last week (a) lower oil prices and (b) investor optimism around a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran, continue to hold the fort for the US market remains to be seen & tested. To be clear, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are still higher, and hit fresh cycle-highs on Friday. Perhaps Wall Street is still hoping the velocity of the rate rise will slow or potentially even reverse, if progress is made in the Middle East. Technically, the SOX’s breakout above the 50-day along with last week's fresh all-time high (ATH) in the Nasdaq are bullish signs. Given how important the AI infrastructure buildout is to the global economy, it's likely a good sign for the bulls if the technology space regains leadership. A shrinking market is not ideal for stocks, but narrow leadership has happened often over the past 5 years without stopping the major indexes from hitting new record highs. This week brings quarterly earnings from memory chip darling $Micron Technology(MU)$, along with the monthly jobs report on Fri, 02 Oct 2026. Recap: Micron Technology’s Q3 2026 earnings. Revenue: Reached $41.46 billion, marking a massive +346% YoY increase and beating consensus estimates. (see below) Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported non-GAAP diluted EPS of $25.11, easily topping the estimated of $20.20 - $20.49 range. (see below) Net Income: GAAP net income surged to $28.24 billion. Cash Flow: Operating cash flow rose to $25.4 billion, with adjusted free cash flow hitting a record $18.3 billion. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). According to US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), US NFP for August 2026 increased by 162,000. 55,000 This far exceeded Wall Street expectations, as economists surveyed by Dow Jones & Reuters had only anticipated a conservative growth of roughly 55,000 jobs. Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%, matching market forecasts. Wining sectors: Hiring was primarily driven by (i) Food services & drinking places (+59,200) and (ii) Local government education (+41,900). Losing sector : The Information industry shed -23,000 jobs, that analysts attributed to shifting dynamics in AI & corporate infrastructure investments. If it happens again in September 2026, or if there is a meaningful pick-up in wage growth - with S&P PMI reports already suggesting labour bottlenecks, it could generate additional upward pressure on Treasury yields. Outside of impending Friday's employment report, the near-term technicals are relatively bullish. If Treasury yields pull back (or stop moving higher), it could help provide a lift to US stocks. Additionally, seasonality shifts in the bulls favour as September 2026 comes to past, and Q3 earnings season is still a few weeks away. From where I stand, I think it is going to be a moderately “bullish" outlook this week. What could challenge my belief ? If Treasury yields continue to push higher at the same rate (5 -15 basis points daily) like they have over the past 3 days. If NFP comes in well above estimates, it could lead to a down week for stocks. What Else ? What else might affect US market would be this week’s US economic reports. Last week, it was the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI reports. Will any of this week’s reports repeat the same trick ? Take a look: Tue, 29 Sep 2026 - US consumer confidence for September. Tue, 29 Sep 2026 - Jobs opening & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) for August.. Wed, 30 Sep 2026 - ADP non-farm payroll for September. Wed, 30 Sep 2026 - US Q2 2026 Gross domestic product (GDP) - third estimates. Wed, 30 Sep 2026 - Advance US Trade Balance in Goods for August. Wed, 30 Sep 2026 - US Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for August. Thu, 01 Oct 2026 - US Jobless claims. Fri, 02 Oct 2026 - US Non-farm payroll for September. My viewpoints : (mine only) I think US market’s next direction will likely hinge on whether : Middle East developments ease energy and rate pressures. Strong employment and inflation data push yields higher and undermine market rally. Against this backdrop, the outlook is cautiously bullish, with MU’s earnings and Friday’s jobs report serving as key tests. Ultimately, the tug-of-war between elevated bond yields and resilient technology leadership will dictate market momentum heading into October. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Wed (23/09), start of US Market pullback? NVDA Weak valuation - Opportunity or Trap? US Market Crash: Warning or False Alarm ? Do you think MU’s impending Q4 2026 earnings will blow US market away and pull US market along ? Do you think a peace deal could be brokered between the US & Iran, finally ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents