To The Moon

Hi guys rasinbunlover here! This is my first post so I’d appreciate your view and a follow if you like my content:)

Came across an interest chart, since March, the US 10Y yield has risen from ~3.95% to 5.28%. Over the same period, $MCD has fallen ~32% from its high. Almost a perfect mirror image

MCD vs 10Y

🔍 Why does McDonald trade “against” yields?

McDonald's is mature, slow-growing, dividend-heavy and carries a lot of debt. So the market prices it partly like a bond:

• Higher yields = its steady future cash flows are worth less today

• A 5%+ Treasury competes directly with its dividend

• Higher rates slowly raise its own borrowing costs

💰 What the selloff has done to the valuation

• Forward dividend yield ~3.3%, the highest in over a decade (dividend just raised to $1.93/quarter)

• P/E at its lowest in about 6 years

• The ~32% drawdown is its deepest since the 2020 COVID crash

🤔 Is 5% actually high?

Not by history. The 10Y has averaged ~5.3% across the decades since the 1950s. In the 1980s it averaged 10.6%, and the S&P 500 still compounded 17.5% a year.

Rates vs Returns by decade (Credit:Adam Khoo)

🎯 My View

I think the 10Y is closer to a peak than a breakout especially with Mr.Trump in charge. If yields ease even modestly, bond-like quality names such as $MCD should be among the first to recover. Meanwhile, you're paid ~3.3% a year to wait.

🧭 The Setup

• Price is back in the ~$215–235 zone: resistance in 2019–2020, support since 2021

• Weekly RSI at its lowest since the COVID crash

• Waiting for a weekly confirmation candle is also an option here.

Mcdonald Weekly Support

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger