NVDA’s $150B Buyback: Bold or Risky ?
The $150 Billion Buyback.
On Mon, 28 Sep 2026, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s CEO Jensen Huang’s announced a record $150 billion share-buyback, the single largest authorization increases in US corporate history.
Honestly, it was a direct response to market doubts about NVDA’s valuation and the durability of AI boom - more than a capital-allocation update.
Actually, I have touched on the #1 chipmaker’s valuation concerns in my last Thursday post. (click here ! to read)
By lifting the company’s remaining repurchase capacity to $235 billion thru’ FY 2028, NVDA effectively told investors that, in management’s view, the best use of its enormous cash flow right now is to buy its own stock.
The timing is notable as announcement came as NVDA’s forward price-to-earnings multiple for FY 2028 sat near 14.5x –16.5×.
This is well below its 5-year average of roughly 63×, making NVDA “cheaper” than most megacap peers on a forward basis.
What this means ?
For existing shareholders, the buyback is structurally accretive.
Fewer shares outstanding means higher earnings per share even if net income growth moderates, and NVDA has already been aggressive on this front.
In the first half of fiscal 2027 alone, the company has repurchased about $39.8 billion of its stock, building on roughly $40.4 billion in fiscal 2026 and around $34 billion in fiscal 2025.
With operating cash flow of $74.4 billion in first half of fiscal 2027, NVDA can still easily & simultaneously (a) fund AI infrastructure expansion and (b) return substantial capital to owners.
Former Wall Street analyst David Bennett captured the sentiment succinctly:
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When market began asking “how long can the AI boom last ?”, NVDA didn’t bother talking. It wrote a cheque.
For potential investors, the buyback functions both as a (a) valuation signal and (b) confidence marker.
At a forward P/E near 14.5x – 16.5× for fiscal 2028, NVDA trades at a multiple that analysts describe as “cheaper than most S&P 500 companies” despite its dominant position in AI accelerators and an expected +60% YoY net-income jump in fiscal 2028.
Wall Street Consensus.
Post Oak Group, MD, Karan Ramchandani called the move a “clear-cut message” that management views its own shares as the best investment available over the coming year.
Melius Research, Hd of Tech research, Ben Reitzes added that NVDA stock deserves to be higher given its growth rate. The buyback “in a bigger and bigger way” should help market assign a richer multiple.
On a mechanical level, UBS analysts estimated the stepped-up repurchases could add about +$0.08 per share to FY 2027 earnings, small but meaningful boost at margin.
Post news, revised Price-Targets (PT).
The buyback announcement landed alongside a wave of upward revisions to NVDA’s revenue, earnings, and price-target forecasts.
It reinforces the narrative that company’s fundamentals continue to outrun even elevated expectations.
One valuation framework, using higher next-12-month revenue expectations of $547.15 billion (the average of fiscal 2027 and 2028 forecasts), a 42% free-cash-flow margin, and a 3.3% FCF yield, derived a fair market value of roughly $6.96 trillion.
Data Modelling.
A valuation framework derived a fair market value of roughly $6.96 trillion for NVDA, using the following key details:
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Next-12-month revenue expectations: $547.15 billion (based on FY 2027 & FY 2028 forecasts).
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Free-Cash-Flow (FCF) Margin: 42%
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Free-Cash-Flow (FCF) Yield: 3.3%
Against a market capitalization near $5.486 trillion (as of 29 Sep 2026’s closing), this implies about a +26.64% upside and a price target (PT) around $287.73 versus a then-current price of $227.21.
Consensus targets moved up in tandem.
Among the 61 analysts polled, the average PT rose to $327.70 from $305.79.
While another model-based target increased to $326.75 from $321.59 earlier in the month.
These revisions reflect both (1) higher revenue trajectories and (2) confidence that NVDA can sustain high free-cash-flow conversion as AI spending scales:
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Analysts now expect roughly $411.56 billion in FY 2027 and $682.73 billion in FY 2028.
In other words, the buyback did not occur in a vacuum; it arrived as US market was already re-rating the stock’s earnings power and terminal value. Errh, I don’t quite buy this statement !
Burry’s NVDA attack.
Against a backdrop of bullish corporate action and rising analyst targets, Michael Burry sharpened his bearish stance on NVDA and the broader AI trade.
On his Mon, 28 Sep 2026 Substack page, he criticized the logic of large buybacks at elevated valuations and compared Huang’s growing media presence to $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ CEO Alex Karp’s frequent television appearances.
To paraphrase - “He’s (Huang) becoming a bit like Karp in that way”.
When a user questioned the wisdom of buying back shares during a market frenzy, Burry agreed with the premise, noting that such behavior is “more common overseas now than in the US, where share buybacks at all levels seem to be the rule.
More importantly, Burry translated skepticism into concrete positioning.
He closed his outright short positions in NVDA, PLTR, MU, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ and other AI-linked names.
Next, he replaced many of them with “put” options extending into 2027.
He cited new research suggesting the AI bubble could burst “sooner than later” prompting him to move his bearish timelines forward.
Specifically, he swapped his NVDA short for September 2027’s “puts” with strikes in the mid-$100s.
This move leveraged his view that the stock could fall sharply within the next year.
At the same time, it capped his downside to the option premium if his timing proved wrong.
His shift from linear shorts to convex put exposure is a hallmark of a trader who believes a downturn is likely but uncertain on timing: he can be early without being forced out of the position.
NVDA benefitted from Buyback news ?
NVDA benefitted from the announcement in the immediate window from when the news broke through Tuesday’s close, though the magnitude of the gain was restrained and relative to the size of the headline.
As of 29 Sep 2026 closing
On the announcement Mon, 28 Sep 2026, NVDA rose about +1.6% to +2.0%, outperforming a broader market that fell on higher oil prices and climbing Treasury yields.
Intraday, the stock traded as high as $233.21 before closing near $228.86, up roughly +1.68% on heavy volume.
Several reports described the move as a “jump” or “pop” in early trading, driven by the record buyback and the simultaneous unveiling of new AI-agent safety software.
By Tue, 29 Sep 2026’s close, the stock was basically flat to slightly higher compared to Monday’s close.
Data showed marginal gain of around +0.3% to +0.4% as initial euphoria consolidated and the broader market stabilized.
Put together, from the moment the news broke through Tuesday’s end of trading, NVDA posted a clear positive return of +0.99%, avoided the broader selloff that weighed on indices, and held those gains into the 2nd session.
That said, overall reaction was modest compared with the scale of the buyback authorization.
Realistically, the restraint reflects :
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Lingering investor concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven growth.
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Compression in valuation multiples despite soaring earnings.
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The risks that Burry bets on - (a) circular financing, (b) uncertain customer profitability, and (c) the possibility that infrastructure commitments do not translate into durable, cash-generative demand.
My viewpoints : (mine only)
The $150 billion authorization is best understood as a cash-flow confidence statement rather than a short-term price catalyst.
NVDA is signaling that it expects free cash flow to keep rising fast enough to justify more than doubling its repurchase pace through FY 2028, as it continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
Historically, large buyback hikes at both AAPL & NVDA have been followed by 12-month outperformance.
However, the primary driver had typically been the underlying business strength that generated the cash, not the mechanical EPS boost from a smaller share count.
It has been 3 days since announcement.
The gains so far is a measly +1.43% with the muted magnitude underscores the tug-of-war in the market:
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On one side, management and many analysts argue the stock is cheap relative to its growth and cash generation, warranting both higher multiples and aggressive capital returns.
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On the other, skeptics (eg. Burry) see circular financing, stretched AI economics, and a bubble that could break sooner than expected - hence his shift from outright shorts to 2027-dated puts.
Ultimately, the buyback has set the stage; the next earnings prints and evidence of customer profitability will determine whether it becomes a self-fulfilling vote of confidence or a costly vote of overconfidence.
If only Xi JinPing last week’s visit to US has led to a “relaxed” US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports, NVDA’s outlook would be stronger and its buyback plan would have been met with even greater enthusiasm. Agree ?
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Do you think the real reason for the Buyback is that NVDA is undervalued ?
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